The Result Carries Weight
When the Steelers selected Drew Allar with the 76th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the immediate reaction was that they reached a bit. The physical tools were never the question—Allar can make every throw and create outside structure in ways most quarterbacks wouldn't even attempt. The concern was everything that came after the highlight-reel moments.
During his final two seasons at Penn State, the footwork got hurried when pressure arrived, and the consistency disappeared in stretches that followed a familiar script: flashes of next-level throws followed by periods where the game slowed down for him. He looked like a future star one series and a quarterback still figuring things out the next. That duality is why the original grade settled in the fifth round.
The list looks clean on paper; the hard part is everything that happens after it is printed.
What changed the calculation wasn't the Steelers themselves. Running a model across quarterback data from 2015-25 to identify traits most closely associated with successful NFL transitions revealed something the eye test kept missing. The model consistently rewarded QBs who moved the chains, had meaningful starting experience, and showed they could function when things weren't perfect around them. Allar's 37.9% first-down rate was among the best in the class—significantly better than the public conversation around him suggested.
The Moment That Swung It
Historically, quarterbacks with more collegiate starts handle the NFL transition better because they've seen more football: more disguised coverages, more third-and-long situations, more blitz looks. Allar brought that experience to Pittsburgh. The tape told a different story than the grade. At his best, he made some of the most impressive throws in the class—driving the football outside the numbers, layering throws over defenders, attacking tight windows with anticipation. The problem was that those stretches often evaporated once the pocket got muddy and everything sped up.
Here's where the third-round reality becomes less of a problem. Between Allar at No. 76 and Pittsburgh's next selection at No. 85 (CB Daylen Everette), the board was filled with names who projected primarily as role players or developmental starters. The same held true for the next 10 picks until OL Gennings Dunker at No. 96. There was no blue-chip prospect sitting on the board demanding to be selected.
The Steelers weren't choosing between a developmental quarterback and an immediate-impact starter. They were choosing between a quarterback with legitimate starting upside and a group of prospects who largely projected as depth. If Allar becomes even an average NFL starter, the opportunity cost isn't the rotational defender or backup offensive lineman Pittsburgh passed on—it's the quarterback Pittsburgh almost didn't take.
The Race Tightens
Allar's weaknesses were real, but they were also largely operational rather than physical. Pocket management, footwork, processing speed, and confidence under pressure are exactly the kinds of problems NFL coaching staffs spend years trying to fix. The arm is there. The athleticism is there. What's now in Pittsburgh's hands is a player whose flaws appear more fixable than they did on draft day—which is about the best thing you can say about a third-round quarterback.