The Roster Takes Shape
The San Antonio Spurs used to trust Gregg Popovich to play the Manu Ginobili card when it mattered most. In 2005, when the Super Sonics tied that second-round series 2-2, Ginobili was inserted into the starting lineup and the Spurs didn't look back. They did the same thing against the Hornets in 2008, the Thunder in 2012, and even four games into the 2013 Finals against the Heat. When the season was on the line, Popovich turned to his best available player rather than his most expensive one.
That's the same decision facing the Spurs now, trailing the Knicks 1-0 in the Finals after Wednesday night's Game 1. Dylan Harper, a 20-year-old rookie, is simply playing better basketball than De'Aaron Fox right now—and it isn't particularly close.
Harper, the No. 2 pick in the 2025 Draft, has been dealing with an adductor strain since the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder. Fox missed the first two games of that series with a high-ankle sprain. Harper recovered faster, and his steadier health was necessary against a Thunder team that forced more turnovers than all but two defenses in the league. But the Knicks present a different challenge entirely.
New York was a below-average turnover-generating defense this season. What San Antonio needs against them is rim pressure and defenders who can hold up on Jalen Brunson. The Spurs scored just 42 points in the paint in Game 1, down from the over 52 they averaged in the regular season and the 49 they scored per night in the first three rounds of the playoffs. Harper generated 10 of those points himself.
The Margins Are Thin
He's been among the best rim-pressuring guards of the entire postseason, averaging 4.7 shots in the restricted area per game. Among true guards, only Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Maxey and Brunson have gotten to the rim more this postseason—and all three play more minutes than Harper does. None of them have matched Harper's 67.4% shooting in the restricted area.
Fox, since returning from that high-ankle sprain, is attempting only 2.6 shots in the restricted area per game and shooting 46.2% on those looks while playing around eight more minutes per game than Harper in that span. When he's not getting to the rim, Fox is subsisting on jumpers and runners. In Game 1 of the Finals, he shot 1-of-10 outside of the restricted area.
The defensive matchup tells a similar story. Harper, listed at 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds, is bigger than Fox (6-3, 185) and defends far more physically. When Fox guarded Brunson in the March regular season games between these teams, the Knicks had success getting Fox switched onto Karl-Anthony Towns. That same switch was available to the Knicks at the end of Game 1, but Brunson preferred attacking Champagnie instead.
There is a reasonable argument for caution here. Fox is a 28-year-old All-Star who just signed a max extension. Of course he's going to start over a rookie. And when your team wins 62 games with that starter in place, sticking with what has worked feels like the sensible inclination. But the Spurs didn't win Game 1, and the margins in the Finals are unforgiving. A single lineup decision can swing games, and games can swing championships.
The Next Test Arrives
Harper played fewer than four fourth-quarter minutes in Game 1 while Fox logged 10 more minutes than him overall. That's the kind of rotation decision that quietly buries a team's championship chances. Popovich understood that with Ginobili—the best move was often the uncomfortable one.
The Spurs have already relinquished home-court advantage in this series. There are between three and six games remaining in the 2025-26 season, and there's no time left for sentiment. If San Antonio wants to survive this series, they need their five best players on the floor for the moments that matter most. Right now, Dylan Harper is clearly one of them.