It feels as though Connor Hellebuyck ’s days in Winnipeg are numbered.
Trade speculation is flying around the 33-year-old goalie, and for good reason.
It’s rare a three-time Vezina Trophy winner becomes available, and acquiring this sort of goaltending outperformance could turn any playoff team into a Stanley Cup contender.
The ask from Winnipeg in any trade is going to be extraordinary.
The real questions front offices are weighing: What is the likelihood Hellebuyck continues to look like one of the league’s best goalies over the final five years of his contract?
Are teams still acquiring a superstar, or potentially lining up to overpay ($8.5 million AAV through the 2030-31 season) for past performance?
We don’t have a crystal ball to answer this sort of question, but Hellebuyck is far from the first goaltender to continue playing at an elite level into his 30s.
To that end, I was curious about how some of Hellebuyck’s contemporaries have aged, and if the decision to acquire a goaltender at this moment is one that would skew higher risk or higher reward.
To do this, I looked at every goaltender with qualified performance (at least 300 shot attempts faced) from the 2007-08 regular season through the 2025-26 regular season, and affixed a percentile ranking of their play that season.
Our preferred unit of measure here will be Goals Saved Above Expected on a per game basis.