A Legacy In Full
The Mariners have flipped their season around. After sitting at 25-29 on May 24, they've won eight of nine and taken a two-game lead in the AL West. The rotation got a boost when Luis Castillo moved to long reliever, and Bryce Miller has looked solid in his starts while Emerson Hancock is having a breakout season. The main issue was the disappearance of Cal Raleigh even before his injury, but he's expected to return soon. Sometimes a few days off shakes things loose.
The defending AL West champs were written off after a terrible start, but they've righted the ship and now look like the best team in a relatively weak division. The Astros are five games back. Will they be five games better the rest of the way than the Mariners? That's the question.
The matchup already has enough history; the job is to keep the reading list shorter than the tension.
The Rays went 22-4 from April 22 to May 22 and held a 5½-game lead in the AL East. Since then, they've lost eight of ten, including being swept by the Orioles and Tigers at home, where they were previously 21-6. The Yankees have climbed to within one game with a +92 run differential compared to the Rays' +5. The Yankees have more talent and that'll continue to show as the season unfolds. The odds bear it out: Yankees -240 to win the AL East, Rays at +200.
The Numbers That Last
The Braves are 42-20 with a +114 run differential and have opened up a 9½-game lead over the Phillies, 11½ over the Nationals, 13½ over the Marlins and 15 over the Mets. Chris Sale is the ace, Spencer Strider is back from injury, and the bullpen with Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez and Dylan Lee has been stellar. But the Braves came back from 10½ games down on June 1 in 2022 to win the division. The Guardians last season came from 15½ back in July. There are too many games left. The Phillies and Braves play head-to-head ten times in September, and the Phillies have actually been one game better than the Braves since April 26. It's not over yet.
The Cubs' sequencing this season is among the most extreme in baseball history. They started 7-9, won ten in a row, lost three in a row, won ten in a row, and have since been terrible. After the great stretch, they were 27-12 and looked like one of the best teams in baseball. Since then, they've been the worst team in baseball by record. At 32-30, their overall record says they're a playoff contender, but if you break it down, the Cubs were only a good team for a 23-game sample. On either side of that, we've seen 39 games of either not very good or terrible. One side outweighs the other.
This team has major starting pitching issues with Cade Horton's season-ending injury, Justin Steele's setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Shota Imanaga falling apart. The returns of Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd should help, but they're hardly a sure thing. In a tough division, maybe the Cubs just aren't very good and that earlier run of success was a fluke.
The Game That Followed
One thing that gives pause: during this awful stretch, they've been absolutely atrocious with runners on base. They're still getting them on base, though — they're still fifth in the majors in OBP. Second, the Cubs have played the toughest schedule in baseball. Their next four series come against the Giants and Rockies, exactly the schedule that got the Diamondbacks hot recently. Check back on this one around June 26 when the Cubs head to Milwaukee.