The Pressure Shows Up Early
The San Diego Padres don't look like a good team right now. They've lost 11 of 13 and are 14-22 since April 27. That stretch where they won 16 of 19 is starting to feel more like a mirage than evidence of a World Series contender. Yet they're still over.500 at 33-31 and just a half game out of playoff position. In a season short on dominant teams, that makes them a buyer.
According to The Athletic, the Padres are gearing up to be buyers at the July trade deadline. General manager A.J. Preller has a reputation for aggressive deals, and with the team sitting that close to a postseason spot, standing pat isn't really an option. The Padres have made the playoffs four of the last six seasons, though they haven't reached the World Series since 1998 and remain one of five MLB franchises without a championship.
The matchup already has enough history; the job is to keep the reading list shorter than the tension.
The offense is the obvious problem. As a team, they're hitting.214/.289/.355 — dead last in all three categories among 30 MLB teams. They're also last in runs scored, averaging 3.77 per game. By OPS+, only Gavin Sheets and Ty France have been above average with regular playing time.
The big names aren't pulling their weight. Jackson Merrill is hitting.202/.275/.329. Fernando Tatis Jr. finally hit his first home run of the season a little over a week ago — just the one, with a.273 average but only.328 slugging. The league average is.394. He's on a $340 million contract through 2033. Manny Machado, turning 34 next month, is on a $350 million deal running through 2033. He's hitting.169/.254/.342 — genuinely one of the worst offensive players in baseball this season. Xander Bogaerts is at.226/.300/.348 (83 OPS+), 33 years old, with seven years and over $178 million remaining after this season.
The contracts are a significant obstacle. No other team would take Tatis's deal right now, even with eight years and nearly $272 million left. Same for Machado, who has seven years and roughly $275 million coming. Merrill's 10-year, $156 million deal might age well — he's only 23 — but the early returns aren't encouraging.
The Detail That Tilts It
The rotation has its own problems. Yu Darvish might be finished; he's owed $30 million over two more years. Joe Musgrove has had multiple setbacks in his return from Tommy John surgery and isn't close. Nick Pivetta is dealing with an elbow injury and also isn't close to returning. Walker Buehler has been mediocre. Lucas Giolito has been mediocre in four starts. Griffin Canning has just been bad. Michael King and Randy Vásquez are doing most of the heavy lifting.
The bullpen is solid, but it can only do so much when the rotation is thin and the offense is this bad.
Here's the catch: when teams buy at the deadline, they trade away depth — prospects, organizational players, sometimes roster pieces — for impact talent. Last season, the Padres sent six prospects to Kansas City for Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Laureano. Preller has made plenty of those deals, and as a result, the Padres ranked dead last in MLB.com's farm system rankings heading into spring.
One way to restock a depleted farm system is to sell. Who could they sell? All-Everything closer Mason Miller is the obvious answer, and King fits that conversation. That's about it. Merrill's contract is unmovable, and nobody is taking Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts or anyone else with that kind of money.
So the Padres are stuck with what they have. It's a thin roster with several highly compensated players who aren't performing. They'll try to add help at the deadline, but there's not much room to maneuver. They're close enough to the playoffs to try, but the roster's limitations make a deep run seem unlikely.