The NFC South was the worst division in the NFL this past season, until it suddenly wasn't. Three teams finished with an 8-9 record. A four-game win streak from the Atlanta Falcons and a disastrous 2-7 stretch from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers later, Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers earned a home playoff game. They became the fifth team in NFL history to win their division with a losing record, and the first team to make the playoffs twice with a losing record. Sometimes the timing of your collapse matters more than the collapse itself.
The Buccaneers looked like the favorite for most of the year but finished 8-9. It snapped their streak of five straight playoff appearances and put head coach Todd Bowles on notice. The Falcons registered their eighth-straight losing season despite boasting Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts on offense. They brought back Matt Ryan to serve in the front office and hired Kevin Stefanski this offseason.
The numbers are doing most of the announcement work here, which is usually how teams prefer it.
The New Orleans Saints were expected to be the worst team in the NFL. Instead they went 6-11 and had a surprising Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist in quarterback Tyler Shough. The second-round pick went 5-4 as the starter, winning just as many games as all other Saints rookie quarterbacks all-time.
2026 Win Totals
Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under 6.5 — The Falcons brought in Tua Tagovailoa to battle Michael Penix Jr. for the starting job. Penix is 4-8 as a starter and owns the highest bad-throw percentage in the league. Tagovailoa threw a career-high 15 interceptions with the Miami Dolphins last season and is 12-13 as a starter over the last two years. The season may well come down to riding Bijan Robinson, who posted a franchise-record 2,298 yards from scrimmage on 366 total touches. The Falcons have gone under their preseason win total in seven of the past eight seasons. That's a pattern worth respecting.
Carolina Panthers: Over/Under 7.5 — The Panthers splurged for pass rusher Jaelan Phillips and found a steal in Pro Bowl linebacker Devin Lloyd. They reinforced the offensive line with Monroe Freeling in the first round and drafted defensive playmaker Lee Hunter in the second. All eyes are on Bryce Young as he looks to lock down a lucrative extension. The former No. 1 overall pick has a limited ceiling, but do you need a physical freak to contend? His offensive line finished top 10 in pass-blocking efficiency. The defense has difference-makers at all three levels. Repeat as divisional champs is possible if Young gets enough support.
New Orleans Saints: Over/Under 7.5 — Tyler Shough was the most impressive rookie quarterback in the NFL. New Orleans upgraded his weaponry with Travis Etienne and first-round pick Jordyn Tyson. The Saints lost defensive pieces like Cameron Jordan, Alontae Taylor and Demario Davis, but they own the second-easiest schedule in the league this season. They can't rank last in the NFL in red-zone TD percentage again and need to score more than 18 points per game. The over is lean-worthy if those holes get fixed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/Under 8.5 — Baker Mayfield looked like an MVP favorite early, throwing 12 touchdowns and one interception in the first six games. He finished with 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in the final 11 games. His 217.2 passing yards per game and 26 passing touchdowns ranked the fewest since joining the Bucs in 2023. He's going through his fourth offensive coordinator change in as many years and lost his trusted No. 1 wideout, Mike Evans. The Bucs have gone 4-8 without Evans over the last two seasons. The defense hasn't finished in the top half of the league in three straight years, and they lost Lavonte David and Jamel Dean. The regression is real. Whether it's permanent remains the open question.