Jaylen Brown's move from Boston to Philadelphia illustrates how the NBA's salary-cap rules can turn a championship-level player into a trade candidate. The question facing front offices is no longer only whether two stars can win together, but how much of the cap they can consume while leaving enough room for a title-caliber supporting cast.
Jayson Tatum and Brown represented about 47% of the salary cap when the Celtics won the 2024 championship. Their contracts were projected to rise to roughly 70% beginning in 2027, with 8% annual raises outpacing expected cap growth. Celtics president Brad Stevens cited that shift after the decision to trade Brown.
Recent champions show why teams are cautious. Among the last 15 NBA champions, only the 2021-22 Golden State Warriors committed more than 61% of the cap to their two highest-paid players. Excluding that team, the other 14 champions averaged just under 53.6%.
That history does not make every expensive pairing unworkable. It does show that teams need surplus value elsewhere, often from stars on rookie contracts, below-market extensions or inexpensive role players. Three current situations could test how long that balance can last.
De'Aaron Fox's extension creates a timeline in San Antonio
Fox's four-year, $221.7 million contract begins next season. He is scheduled to earn $61.3 million in 2029-30, his age-32 season, and the deal occupies about 30% of the cap.
The Spurs can carry that salary for now because Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama are projected to combine for only about 24% of the cap next season. Their rookie-scale contracts create flexibility that will shrink as Wembanyama and the team's other young players become eligible for extensions.
Fox remains an above-average starting point guard, but the source analysis questions whether his value will match the contract as he ages. If Harper and Castle take on larger roles, San Antonio could eventually consider moving Fox before all four players reach more expensive contracts at the same time.
Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley could approach Boston's 70% problem
Mitchell signed a four-year, $273 million extension with Cleveland that runs through his age-34 season. Current estimates place his 2030-31 salary at 37.49% of the cap.
Evan Mobley is also expected to remain on a major contract as a foundational player. If his next deal remains near the level of his current projection, Mitchell and Mobley could together approach the 70% share that made Boston uncomfortable with Tatum and Brown.
The Cavaliers have less room to offset those salaries with low-cost talent because they have traded numerous draft picks and committed market-rate money to much of the rotation. A future trade is not certain, but Mitchell's size, age and salary could make his value more sensitive to any decline or recurring injury issues.
Orlando's four-player core could consume about 93% of the cap
The Magic face a different version of the same issue. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs are projected to earn about 93% of the 2027-28 cap combined.
That concentration might be manageable for an established contender, but the four players have one combined All-Star appearance and Orlando finished as a Play-In team last season. The roster is also projected to have about $40 million below the second apron in the 2027 offseason with only eight players under contract, meaning the bench would still need to be built.
Banchero and Wagner remain young enough to improve, and a coaching change could raise the team's ceiling. If the results do not improve, however, Orlando may have to consider trading one of its core players to restore depth after investing heavily in the group.
The second-apron era rewards teams that can identify value before it becomes expensive. High salaries alone do not force trades, but contract timing, player development and the availability of affordable contributors can quickly turn a long-term commitment into a difficult roster decision.