Lightning vs Canadiens Game 3: Series Tied 1-1, Tampa Bay Favored in Montreal

AAS Editorial Team

Lightning vs Canadiens Game 3: Series Tied 1-1, Tampa Bay Favored in Montreal

The 2026 NHL playoffs continue on Friday as the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning battle in Game 3 of a series tied 1-1.

Montreal upset Tampa Bay on the road in Game 1, then pushed the Lightning to the brink in Game 2 before defenseman J.J. Moser scored at 12:48 into overtime to help Tampa Bay salvage the split at home.

Game Details

Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET at the Bell Centre in Montreal

Odds: Tampa Bay -121 favorites | Canadiens +101 underdogs

Over/Under: 6 goals

Puck line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+199)

Key Matchup Projections

According to the SportsLine Projection Model (10,000 simulations):

Montreal: Cole Caufield projected for .56 goals and .45 assists. Goaltender Jakub Dobes expected to make 22.3 saves and allow 2.98 goals.

Tampa Bay: Nikita Kucherov projected to score 0.51 goals and 1.03 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevsky expected to make 19.6 saves and allow 2.92 goals.

Betting Analysis

The model projects 6.1 combined goals between the teams, making the Over the value play at 6.

The Over has hit in seven of the last 11 head-to-head meetings between the teams, including Game 1 of this series when the teams combined for seven goals.

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