The Edmonton Oilers are on the ropes, and their quest to return to a third consecutive Stanley Cup Final has run into trouble in Anaheim. After Sunday's overtime thriller, the Ducks — who had not reached the playoffs in eight prior seasons — are one win shy of advancing to the second round.
Series Odds Turnaround
This would be a meaningful upset. Edmonton was priced at 69 per cent implied probability of winning this series before it started; now, they are down to just 21 per cent.
Goaltending Concerns Validated
We had serious reservations about Edmonton's goaltending, and those reservations have been validated once more. The combination of Connor Ingram and Tristan Jarry has been dreadful, the duo stopping just 85 per cent of shots faced in the series.
Even Strength Domination
But bad goaltending isn't the only issue. Getting outplayed by the Anaheim Ducks at even strength is concerning, given the talent in the Oilers lineup. Anaheim has outscored Edmonton and is getting 55 per cent of the shot share in the process.
Top Line Struggling
In playoff matchups, head-to-head performance can illuminate where the performance gaps exist. What stands out immediately? Edmonton's top line is getting outplayed by Anaheim's top line. In the Connor McDavid era, you can count the amount of times his line has been outplayed on one hand, but the young guns in Anaheim are giving this group fits.
Spending so much time defending the run of play is death by a thousand paper cuts for the Oilers' big guns — they're not a great defensive group to begin with and now are spending inordinate amounts of time in the defensive third trying to protect an already besieged goaltending group.
Statistical Breakdown
These big negative differentials have proved meaningful: the McDavid line is getting outscored 6-to-2 (-4), as is their top pairing of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm.
Looking back at game four, you can see the Ducks are not having much of an issue finding their way to dangerous scoring areas in Edmonton's zone. Shots and goals are coming from between the circles and near the net-mouth.
Special Teams Disadvantage
The exclamation point on all this? Edmonton's supernova power play has been anything but. We have seen struggling Oilers teams many times over saved by a man advantage that looks unstoppable; right now, the Ducks power play is +6 in the series, while the Oilers power play is just +2.
Time for Stars to Step Up
Make no mistake, the Oilers are in real trouble here. If there's ever been a time for the likes of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to put the team on their backs, this is it. Anaheim has shown up impressively and frankly looks the better team in every respect.
Either the Oilers run the table here, or we are headed for a long, painful offseason in Alberta.