Arsenal and Manchester City's fight for the English crown is coming down to a photo-finish. The 2025–26 Premier League title race might have once looked like a forgone conclusion, but countless twists and turns over the last few months have made for a back-and-forth battle between the two best clubs in England.
The Gunners sit in pole position to snag their long-awaited league title, but City are keeping the pressure on the league leaders. Pep Guardiola's men bested Crystal Palace 3–0 on Wednesday to come within two points of Arsenal, setting up a thrilling conclusion to the title showdown.
Each team only has two games left to play in the English top-flight this season, and the results will decide who gets crowned champions. Here's how Opta's supercomputer predicts the Premier League table to look like come the end of May.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Race
Opta remains convinced Arsenal will win their first Premier League title in 22 years. The supercomputer gives the Gunners 85.68% odds to keep their place atop the table come the final matchday, especially since they only have Burnley and Crystal Palace left on their schedule.
Mikel Arteta's men are predicted to finish with around 83 points, a number boosted by their three most recent league wins. The tally would be the lowest for a Premier League title winner since Leicester City topped the league with 81 points in 2015–16, but Arsenal won't care.
City certainly will, though. Guardiola's men are slated to miss out on the English crown by just three points. Despite bouncing back against Brentford and Crystal Palace, their costly draw against Everton sealed their runners-up finish, at least in Opta's eyes.
The Citizens have just a 14.32% chance of snatching the title from Arsenal, a feat not helped by their challenging matches against Bournemouth and Aston Villa to close out the season.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Race for Europe
Champions League Battle
Manchester United are sitting pretty, already qualified for the 2026–27 Champions League thanks to their resurgence under Michael Carrick. The Red Devils are projected to finish third, their best placing since 2022–23.
Aston Villa are nipping at their heels, but their final standing won't matter should they win the Europa League final, which comes with a place in next season's Champions League. Still, the supercomputer gives the Villans a 87.18% chance of finishing fifth and securing their return regardless of the outcome in Istanbul.
Currently on the outside looking in are Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion. The Cherries might be on a 17-game unbeaten run, but they are still in line for a sixth place finish, per Opta. The Seagulls are slated to finish seventh, leaving both teams settling for the Europa League and Conference League respectively.
As of now, only the top five teams in the Premier League are guaranteed a Champions League berth next season. But if Aston Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, then the team in sixth place will also qualify for Europe's premier club competition.
Suddenly, the race for the top five has turned into the race for the top six. Bournemouth and Brighton lead the charge, but the supercomputer gives the former the slight edge. The Cherries are predicted to finish with around 57 points, just one more than the Seagulls' 56 points.