The Pressure Shows Up Early
Kyle Shanahan has had plenty to grumble about with this year's NFL schedule, and here's one more thing to add to the list: the 49ers are one of five teams hit with a scheduling disadvantage that no team has ever overcome.
The problem is simple but brutal. Five teams are scheduled to play an international game, then follow that up against a team coming off a bye. The 49ers play in Mexico City in Week 11, then turn around in Week 12 to face a Seahawks team that will have spent the week resting at home.
The NFL's first international game was in 2005. In the 20 years since, the league has managed to avoid putting anyone in this spot almost entirely. There have been exactly four instances where a team coming off an international game faced a team coming off a bye. That team is 0-4 in those games and 0-3-1 against the spread.
The Detail That Tilts It
The Eagles face the Jaguars in London in Week 5, then host a Panthers team coming off a Week 5 bye in Week 6. The Bengals head to Spain in Week 9 to face the Falcons, then host the Steelers on "Sunday Night Football" in Week 10 — Pittsburgh will be coming off a Week 9 bye. The Lions have it worst: their Week 10 game in Germany against the Patriots starts a stretch of three games in 11 days, with the Buccaneers waiting in Week 11 after a Week 10 bye.
The numbers are small but stark. Teams coming off that international trip averaged just 15.25 points per game and were outscored 70-30 in first three quarters. The 49ers will now add their name to a list nobody wants to join.