The initial reaction when the Utah Jazz jumped from No. 4 to No. 2 in Sunday's NBA Draft Lottery was elation. From there, it didn't take long for many to speculate whether the Jazz could take another leap and trade for the No. 1 pick.
After all, the projected top pick in this year's class, AJ Dybantsa, is essentially a local product. Though he grew up in Massachusetts, Dybantsa played his final high school season at Utah Prep before starring last season for BYU, the alma mater of Jazz owner Ryan Smith, alternate governor Danny Ainge and president of basketball operations Austin Ainge.
Smith is a major BYU donor, and he helped finance the enormous NIL package that made Dybantsa a Cougar. CBS Sports' Adam Finkelstein reported this week from the NBA Combine in Chicago that Dybantsa was hoping to remain in Utah. When asked about possibly trading up from No. 2 to No. 1, Smith told The Deseret News that "everything should be on the table."
The Washington Wizards hold the top pick, and team president Michael Winger told Jake Fischer on lottery day that Washington was at least open to moving down. Aside from basketball motivations here, there are long-term roster considerations at play.
How often do potential stars view the small-market Jazz as a desirable destination?
You never know what the future might hold, but ask Milwaukee how it feels to constantly look over your shoulder for teams trying to poach your superstar out of a smaller NBA city. The Jazz might have a chance to sidestep all of that with a trade. The stars could potentially align here, right?
Well... potentially. But this rumor cycle is getting a bit out of hand. I'm not necessarily throwing cold water all over the possibility, but am rather suggesting that the notion that Utah should throw everything it has at Washington to jump up to No. 1 is a bit far-fetched.
No, Ace Bailey shouldn't be in your fake trades
Let's get this out of the way first: this is not the Victor Wembanyama draft. There is not a single, unequivocal top choice in this class.
"We were surprised the broadcast made [Dybantsa to Washington at No. 1] seem like such a foregone conclusion," a scout from a lottery team told Finkelstein.
Dybantsa is in the pole position for the No. 1 pick because he has the best combination of floor and ceiling. The highest floor probably belongs to Duke's Cam Boozer, who is the best prospect in this class by a number of analytical models. The highest ceiling for most of their development process seemed to belong to Darryn Peterson, who entered the season as the favorite to be drafted No. 1, but his college season was filled with health concerns, nudging him out of the top spot. And then there's Caleb Wilson, probably the best athlete in the draft, who has made it a legitimate four-man race.
Everyone has preferences. Dybantsa might be the most common one among teams picking at the top of the draft, but there's no evidence at this stage suggesting there's a consensus. We haven't even had substantive reporting yet at this point that Dybantsa is ranked atop either Washington's or Utah's boards.
For a trade for the top pick to make sense, the Wizards either have to be willing to land someone else, or the Jazz have to believe Dybantsa is substantially more valuable than any prospect they could get at No. 2. For now, the evidence isn't there.
The name most commonly included in these Wizards-Jazz rumors is Ace Bailey
The Wizards picked No. 6 last season, and Bailey seemingly did everything in his power to fall to Washington as his preferred destination. The Jazz didn't blink, and he had a standout rookie season in Utah, averaging 13.8 points per game as a 19-year-old.
Possible stars with three years remaining on a cheap rookie deal that play the NBA's scarcest position are worth their weight in gold. Bailey alone could probably be traded for a significant return, making the calculus for this potential deal even more complicated.