We're about a quarter of the way through the 2026 season, with every MLB team having played between 38 and 42 games. Across the board, the results have been disappointing, and 18 teams sit below .500, though half of those are no more than three games under. But let's focus on the 12 teams at .500 or above in a little game of contender vs. pretender.
Atlanta Braves
Record: 28-13 | Run differential: +87 | Strength of schedule: .494 (17th)
They've been the best offensive team in baseball behind the likes of Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II. It's reasonable to believe Baldwin can't sustain this level, and Dominic Smith (.329 average with a 150 OPS+) probably can't either, but Ronald Acuña Jr. is hurt and capable of more while Austin Riley has been much better than this before.
On the pitching side, Bryce Elder and Martin Pérez feel unlikely to keep pitching the way they are, but Spencer Strider looked like his old self over the weekend. That bullpen is among MLB's best.
Contender or pretender? Strong contender, no question.
Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 26-13 | Run differential: +20 | Strength of schedule: .520 (4th)
The Rays rank 18th in runs scored and 18th in OPS. It's a throwback offense in that they rank very highly in batting average and are one of the hardest teams to strike out. They steal bases, too.
Run prevention is the Rays' calling card, and they rank fifth in team ERA. There's reason to believe Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan can pitch like frontline starters all year, but are we really buying Nick Martinez for a full season at a 1.70 ERA?
The Rays were 12-11 at one point, but have now won 14 of 16 games to take over the best record in the AL.
Contender or pretender? Mild contender.
Chicago Cubs
Record: 27-14 | Run differential: +47 | Strength of schedule: .520 (5th)
The team with the best on-base percentage in the majors is third in runs scored and fourth in slugging percentage. They don't have anyone very obviously playing far above his ceiling except Michael Conforto, and that's in only 55 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong are either capable of better or have started righting the ship in recent weeks.
The bullpen is good and getting healthier after a spate of early season injuries. The rotation depth is the concern, but there's reason for optimism with Shota Imanaga toward the front and Ben Brown toward the back. Also, keep in mind that deficits on the pitching staff can be mediated by arguably the best defense in baseball.
Contender or pretender? Strong contender.
New York Yankees
Record: 26-15 | Run differential: +73 | Strength of schedule: .489 (23rd)
They lead the majors in home runs and are second in slugging. It isn't just Aaron Judge. Ben Rice has been one of the best hitters in baseball, while the Yankees have gotten good work from Cody Bellinger and Amed Rosario.
There should be better coming from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and probably Trent Grisham, too. The offense will remain high-powered.
The Yankees are in a virtual tie for first in team ERA with the Braves. They just got Carlos Rodón back from the IL on Sunday and Gerrit Cole isn't far behind. The leaky bullpen was a big issue last year, but things are vastly improved there, too.
Contender or pretender? Strong contender.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 24-16 | Run differential: +69 | Strength of schedule: .494 (18th)
The two-time defending champs started 15-4, but have gone 9-12 since. Still, they are in fine position.
Contender or pretender? Strong contender.