The Lead Is Simple
Fans are backing Wemby. The numbers say otherwise.
The Knicks open the Finals as decided underdogs at +160 on FanDuel, with the Spurs at -190. That gap feels wide for a series that looks far closer on the floor. New York posted the best point differential in history for a team entering the Finals: plus-271, good for an average margin of 19.7 points per game. They have won 11 straight playoff games. Their last loss came in Game 3 against the Hawks.
The matchup already has enough history; the job is to keep the reading list shorter than the tension.
The Detail That Matters
The line owes something to conference imbalance. The West was brutal this year. The Knicks, as the East's third seed, drew Atlanta. The Nuggets drew Minnesota. One path was harder, and that path was not Broadway.
It still did not make them favorites. The Celtics were. The Cavs were next. New York swept both. The conference finals-clincher over Cleveland gave them eight days of rest before Game 1. The Spurs needed seven games against OKC.
The Road From Here
Draymond Green recently questioned whether Jalen Brunson has proven himself as a 1A championship player. The numbers suggest he has not needed to do it alone. Karl-Anthony Towns spaces the floor like few big men ever have. OG Anunoby guards Wembanyama as well as anyone in the league. The roster was built for this matchup.
The historic note is real. In 40 years of tracking, no eventual champion entered the postseason with longer odds than these Knicks at +2200. They are four wins away from proving every number right.