The season has already passed its two-plus month mark, which means there's still roughly four months of baseball left before the regular season ends. That's plenty of time for a single starting pitcher to reshape a contender's entire outlook.
The Skubal Situation
The Tigers are 4-21 since May 3 and sit 11½ games out of first place in the AL Central. They are also seven games out of a wild-card spot. Those numbers alone don't tell the whole story, though.
Tarik Skubal is recovering from elbow surgery. He threw 39 pitches in a simulated game recently, and the speculative timetable has him returning to the Tigers around mid-June. That kind of injury timeline turns roster planning into calendar management.
He's won back-to-back Cy Youngs. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball before the injury. More relevant to the bigger picture: he's a free agent after this season, he's incredibly unlikely to sign an extension, and he plays for a team in free fall. The arithmetic is straightforward from here.
The Trade Market Factor
If Skubal returns healthy, he's about to become the hottest name on the trade market. The Tigers have no reason to keep him for a lost season, and contenders always need controllable starting pitching. The bigger question isn't whether he'll be traded—it's whether any team has the prospect capital to land him.
The other nine players on this list matter. Fernando Tatis Jr. needs to start hitting for power again. Jordan Walker is on pace for 40 homers in St. Louis. CJ Abrams is having a breakout season in Washington. Cal Raleigh is hurt but the Mariners are still winning.
None of them, though, move the needle the way one elite lefthanded starter does in June. Not when that starter has two Cy Youngs and four months of team control left. Skubal is the pivot point around which the rest of the month turns.