History Shows MVP Doesn't Always Go to the Best Player
Most NBA Finals MVP awards go to the best player on the championship team. That's been true for LeBron James and Michael Jordan, who combined for all 10 of their Finals MVPs across their championship runs. But there's a small list of outliers.
Cedric Maxwell won in 1981 without ever making an All-Star Game. Andre Iguodala beat Stephen Curry for the award in 2015, a decision that lingered for years. And Jerry West remains the only Finals MVP from a losing team, winning in 1969 before the award even had an official name.
The matchup already has enough history; the job is to keep the reading list shorter than the tension.
The 2026 NBA Finals will feature the Spurs against the Knicks. Oddsmakers and CBS Sports analysts have narrowed the field to two clear favorites: Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Brunson.
Wembanyama's Case Starts With Defense
In this series, the matchup problem is the same for everyone: stopping Wembanyama isn't a Knicks problem. It's an NBA problem.OG Anunoby guards him as well as anyone in the league. Karl-Anthony Towns has improved defensively. Mitchell Robinson will contribute despite breaking his pinky finger on his shooting hand. Still, none of it projects as enough.
The staff consensus leans that way. Botkin sees a harder series than most for Wembanyama but credits his defensive impact as the deciding factor. Gonzalez wrote he picked the Spurs in six games because no one in the league can slow him down. Maloney pointed to the +16.7 net rating with Wembanyama on the court compared to minus-0.4 when he sits.
The numbers back the same conclusion. Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring, rebounding and blocks through the playoffs, adds third-most assists, and anchors what could be the best defensive presence in the sport right now.
Brunson's Case and the Towns Variable
Quinn offered the counterargument: Jalen Brunson will have superhero moments, especially late in games, and he's the smarter pick in a vacuum. The advanced numbers favor Towns in this playoff run. He currently owns the 11th-best Box Plus-Minus in playoff history among players with at least 10 starts, trailing only 2009 LeBron James in Win Shares per 48 minutes.
Towns has shot 57% from the field, 49% from three and 89% from the line while adding almost 11 rebounds and six assists per game. He also serves as the primary defender on Wembanyama for stretches, and his shooting opens five-out lineups that might drag the Spurs' defense away from the rim. If Towns keeps producing at that level while slowing Wembanyama, denying him the Bill Russell trophy gets difficult.
Salerno admitted the obvious: if the Spurs win, Wembanyama wins Finals MVP. He called picking the best player on the favored team a cop-out but noted Wembanyama's playoff run has already vaulted him into "best player in the sport" territory. He picked the Spurs in seven games and Wembanyama for MVP.