The 2026 NBA Finals begin Wednesday night in San Antonio, and this Spurs-Knicks matchup has the makings of a memorable series. Both teams match up well, and it will be a chess match from Game 1 as Mike Brown and Mitch Johnson look for ways to flip the board on one another over potentially seven games.
Inside or outside Wemby?
Victor Wembanyama's offensive role remains the central question. Looking at his shot charts from the OKC series, when he got inside, the Spurs won. When he stayed on the perimeter, the y lost. Wemby doesn't have a go-to scoring spot yet—he's still a pretty random operator. Sometimes he falls in love with the 3. Sometimes he looks like he's playing on a Nerf hoop, dunking on his little brother's friends.
The record does not need much decoration; it already does the talking.
He's not strong enough to force his way deep into the paint. His best bet is running the floor and attacking early before New York can set up defensively. He'll need to make threes in this series—one, because he'll be forced to if he wants consistent looks at the rim, and two, he needs the Knicks to fear those shots enough to close out hard, which opens show-and-go driving lanes.
The risk: If the Knicks bully him into "screw it, I can't get any other shot up" type threes, it will be trouble for San Antonio.
Can Josh Hart's Shooting Hold Up?
Against OKC, the Spurs stuck Wembanyama on Alex Caruso so he could sag way off and serve as a roving paint protector. Caruso burned the m through the first three games by shooting 61% from three. Hart will likely get the same treatment.
Hart shot a career-best 42% from three this season, including 49% from the corners. Those numbers have dipped in the postseason—down to 31% overall and 36% from the corners, where he will be stationed often in half-court sets. If he can knock down wide-open threes somewhere between his regular-season and postseason rates, the Knicks can keep him on the floor for all the other great stuff he does. If not, the y may have to bench him for Landry Shamet and go with five shooters, forcing Wemby out to the perimeter.
Karl-Anthony Towns: Opportunity and Problem
Towns has a huge opportunity in this series. Outside of Wembanyama, the Spurs are not a big interior team. If San Antonio puts Wemby on Hart to serve as roving paint protector, that means Towns will get a wing as his primary defender—probably Julian Champagnie, who at 6-foot-7 is a size mismatch for the seven-foot Towns.
KAT can put the ball on the floor and force rotations, or pick and pop for comfortable threes. If the wings can't handle Towns, that forces the Spurs to put Wembanyama on him. Towns is strong enough to go through Wemby, but the bigger factor would be the threat of his three-point shooting pulling Wemby out of the paint, thus opening clearer lanes for Brunson.
The other side: If the Knicks use OG Anunoby to defend Wemby, that puts Towns on one of San Antonio's wings, all of whom can shoot, drive and pass. Can he stay in front of those guys? Track the m off-ball? Defending Wemby straight up is a separate problem entirely. Towns can't afford foul trouble if Wemby is attacking downhill—this is a challenge he has struggled with throughout his career.
Brunson vs the Spurs Wall
Jalen Brunson hasn't faced an individual defender like Stephon Castle in the se playoffs. Castle is extremely physical, and if the refs allow him to play that way, Brunson will be heavily challenged to consistently get by him—or any of the Spurs perimeter defenders. The Knicks will run ball screens, but nobody fights over screens harder than Castle, and with Wemby able to corral drives the moment he needs to recover, the re won't be any red carpets into the paint.
This will likely lead to a heavy jump-shot series for Brunson. But he needs to get into the paint occasionally—at minimum to make the defense collapse and kick for catch-and-shoots rather than firing up contested ones. If he's able to consistently breach Castle and San Antonio's first line of defense, that would be a genuine boon to New York's chances.