The 2026 NBA Finals are set. The San Antonio Spurs advanced by knocking out the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals on Saturday. The y'll face the New York Knicks, who rampaged through the Eastern Conference. This marks the Spurs' first Finals appearance since 2014, and the Knicks' first since 1999, when the y lost to San Antonio in five games.
A new generational big man now wears Spurs silver: Victor Wembanyama. The 22-year-old Frenchman became the youngest player in NBA history to make the All-NBA First Team and reach the NBA Finals in the same season. The question now is simple: will his historic first playoff run end with a title, or will Jalen Brunson and the Knicks bring a championship back to Madison Square Garden for the first time since 1973?
Game 1 is Wednesday. Here are three questions that will decide it.
Can Mitchell Robinson play, and how effective will he be?
Just before Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, news broke that Knicks center Mitchell Robinson had suffered a broken pinky on his right hand. He underwent surgery, and the team remains hopeful he'll suit up for the Finals, per The Athletic. With the series potentially stretching to 17 days if it goes seven games, the re's more time than usual for rest and rehab.
The injury occurred outside of game or practice, according to coach Mike Brown, though the team's PR staff declined to provide specifics when pressed. That's the kind of injury timeline that turns roster planning into calendar management.
Robinson doesn't pile up impressive numbers—he's averaging 5.5 points and 5.3 rebounds this postseason—but he's one of the best offensive rebounders in the league and a physical force in the paint on both ends. The Knicks' offensive rebounding rate with Robinson on the floor sits at 39.4%, dropping to 28.6% when he sits. He's a big reason New York leads all playoff teams with 17.7 second-chance points per game, and that ability to generate extra possessions could prove crucial against an elite Spurs defense.
If Robinson can't go-or can't play at full capacity-the Knicks face a significant problem. The ir only other true center is second-year player Ariel Hukporti, who's appeared in just 79 career games and logged 70 playoff minutes, almost all in garbage time. At 7 feet, 240 pounds, he's a big body, but throwing him into the fire against Wembanyama is a gamble the Knicks would rather avoid.
Even if Robinson plays, a broken pinky changes things. Rebounding aggression, defensive positioning, and free-throw shooting (particularly if the Spurs deploy hack-a-Shaq tactics) all become question marks. How much Robinson gives the Knicks will be a defining storyline of this series.
Will the Knicks' 3-point shooting hold up against elite Spurs defense?
In Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder needed a basket late. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drove the lane with what looked like an opening, until Wembanyama slid over to cut off the angle. With five fouls and time running out, Gilgeous-Alexander aired a pass to the top of the key. That's the impact of the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history.
Postseason numbers via databallr show exactly how opponents' shot diets change when Wembanyama plays. Opponent rim rates collapse. The Thunder shot 75.6% in the restricted area in the first two rounds but managed just 54.4% in the Western Conference Finals against San Antonio's defense.
This matters given how the Knicks operate. The y're the best playoff team at getting shots near the basket, averaging 29.6 shots per game in the restricted area and converting the m at 68.1%. The y're also first in points in the paint per game (53.3) and fifth in free-throw rate (0.307). In or der for the Knicks to win the title, the y're going to have to shoot the ball well from distance—because around the rim, Wembanyama changes everything.
The good news for New York: the y've been excellent from downtown. The y've made at least 10 threes in 12 of the ir 14 playoff games and are shooting 40% from 3-point range in the postseason, leading all teams. During the regular season, the y were fourth in the league at 37.3%. Seven Knicks players are attempting at least two threes per game in the playoffs, and only Josh Hart is shooting below 34%.
The ir 3-point success has been a collective effort, not a fluke. But can the y maintain that level against the Spurs' defense? The y're going to have to.
What does Wembanyama have left for his first Finals?
A year ago, Wembanyama was recovering from a blood clot in his right shoulder that ended his sophomore season after 46 games. Now fully healthy, he has led the Spurs to the Finals in his first playoff run at age 22.
His evolution has been rapid. In Game 1 of the first round against Portland, his first playoff game ever, he dropped 35 points. In Game 1 of the second round against Minnesota, he recorded a triple-double with blocks. Game 3 brought 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks. His 41-point, 24-rebound performance in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City was one of the finest playoff exhibitions in recent memory. He followed that with a 33-point, eight-rebound, five-assist, three-block effort in Game 4 after the Spurs had fallen behind 2-1.
Everyone wants to win, but few obsess over it like Wembanyama. He was emotional after the Spurs closed out Game 7. That intensity has carried him this far. Now it faces its toughest test.