May marks the point in the baseball season when things become real. Spring training and April are full of misleading signals. May is when the rubber hits the road and we get a better idea of what the season actually entails.
This is when we learn which teams are for real, which players are breaking out, and which guys are in for a long season. Here are three trends worth keeping an eye on as we get into the nitty-gritty of the season.
Kazuma Okamoto adjusting to breaking balls
Entering 2026, Kazuma Okamoto was seen as the steadier, more MLB-ready player than Munetaka Murakami, who possesses greater power and more offensive upside. A month into the season, the opposite has played out. Murakami has been one of the game's best hitters in the early going, while Okamoto is still finding his footing with the Blue Jays.
Following a 13-for-69 (.188) start with two homers in his first 18 games, Okamoto is 19-for-62 (.307) with eight homers in his last 17 games. He's cut his strikeout rate from 32.9% to a more acceptable 26.8% during that time. Okamoto recently swatted four homers in a three-game span against the Twins.
Murakami had trouble handling velocity early on. For Okamoto, it was breaking balls. During the first 18 games, he hit a solid .250 against breaking balls but with zero power—a .250 slugging percentage—while missing with 37% of his swings. The league averages are a .358 slugging percentage and 32% whiff rate against breaking balls. Okamoto had a clear vulnerability.
Since those first 18 games, Okamoto has hit .333 with an .833 slugging percentage against fastballs, and he's whittled his whiff rate down to 28%. Three of his last eight homers have come against breaking balls. You can chalk Okamoto's improved performance up to moving further back in the batter's box. The adjustment coincides perfectly with those first 18 games.
There are two schools of thought about where to stand in the batter's box. One is that the hitter should stand far back to give himself as much time as possible to make a swing decision. The second is that the hitter should move up to give the pitch less time to break. There is no right answer. What works for one player may not work for another, and for Okamoto, moving back in the box has worked.
The Blue Jays stormed to the World Series last year because they were seemingly impossible to strike out, yes, but they combined those contact skills with power. They slugged .471 as a team last October. The power hasn't shown up yet this year. Toronto ranks 23rd in homers and 15th in slugging percentage. Okamoto figuring things out will help immensely with that power outage.
Jesús Luzardo's issues with men on base
Last offseason, the Phillies traded two prospects to the Marlins for Jesús Luzardo, who gave them a 3.92 ERA and 216 strikeouts in 183⅔ innings in 2025. That earned him some Cy Young votes and a five-year, $135 million contract extension in March. This year's 5.09 ERA is an eyesore, though Luzardo's underlying numbers—2.27 FIP and 3.16 xERA—are much more promising.
For the third straight season, Luzardo's biggest issue is that he's a much different pitcher with runners on base. Almost every pitcher is less effective with men on, but Luzardo takes it to the extreme.
League-wide, the average pitcher is about 33 OPS points worse with runners on base than with the bases empty. Luzardo has been 316 OPS points worse, and while it is still early in the season and thus a small sample, he was 227 OPS points worse with runners on last year, so a similar split. He also gives back more with his strikeout rate than the average pitcher with men on.
There are countless reasons a pitcher could be worse with runners on base than with the bases empty. The article continues...