When Victor Wembanyama awaited his NBA team assignment ahead of the 2023 Draft, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski delivered a bold forecast during the lottery broadcast. Several executives in the room believed the phenom could become the league's best player on both offense and defense by his third season.
That seemed impossible under modern conditions. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar earned MVP and championship honors by his second year, though he played a full college career. Magic Johnson won Finals MVP as a rookie, but Kareem was alongside him for nearly everything. LeBron reached the NBA Finals in his fourth season, only to be swept by a more experienced San Antonio squad and not return until year eight. Michael Jordan didn't enter GOAT conversations until his first three-peat. LeBron himself identified his 2016 title over the 73-win Golden State Warriors — his 13th season — as the moment he truly arrived.
Wojnarowski's prophecy became reality in year three.
Wembanyama and the Spurs eliminated two-time reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder on the road in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals on Saturday night. Gilgeous-Alexander dealt with injuries to secondary creators Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams. Wembanyama played shorthanded as well, missing teammates De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper to injuries.
During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 5.4 shot attempts in the restricted area per game. Through the first six conference finals games, that figure dropped to nearly three — cut almost in half. Without easy rim access, the MVP struggled, shooting just 32.1% in the non-restricted paint, 38.3% from mid-range and 26.1% on threes. When he couldn't draw fouls, he possessed no efficient pathway to attack Wembanyama's San Antonio defense.
The star erased him entirely.
Typically, reaching this level requires multiple attempts. Jordan lost to the Bad Boy Pistons three times before prevailing. LeBron fell to the Boston Celtics twice and was pushed to the brink in 2012. A pattern exists: young stars ascend, suffer defeats to established powers, then finally break through.
There was virtually no climb here. The Spurs faced the Thunder in five regular-season meetings, winning four. They defeated them in their initial postseason encounter. Perhaps Wembanyama possesses such rare ability that he could scale the mountain from a standing start.
The Thunder won't vanish. They'll likely remain among Wembanyama's primary obstacles moving forward. A potential rematch next season could feature better health, and both franchises possess trade assets for roster improvement. The rivalry continues.
This might represent the worst version of Wembanyama we'll witness. He hasn't approached his peak yet.
A significant storyline involved Oklahoma City's defensive strategy of keeping Wembanyama away from the rim. According to NBA.com tracking data, he recorded 23 paint touches in Game 1, then just 33 across Games 2-6 combined. He'll eventually command better positioning near the basket, and his young guards will improve at delivering entry passes.
He won't dramatically bulk up, but additional muscle should help him handle Oklahoma City's physicality. His post game remains a work in progress. He trained with Hakeem Olajuwon last summer and will likely consult other legends in coming offseasons. He's still ascending.
Considerable distance remains before achieving those grandest goals. He hasn't captured a championship yet, and the New York Knicks present a genuine threat to his coronation. They beat the Spurs twice during the regular season, including the NBA Cup final, and that came before New York's remarkable Eastern Conference run. He might still lose. He could experience the same struggles that Jordan and James faced during their climbs to dominance.
Yet the basketball world assessed Wembanyama before he even entered the league and projected he'd be the best player by his third season. The theory, however outlandish it appeared, came to pass.
If that's achievable, no other ambitious projection about his future can be dismissed. Age matters little at this point. Everyone observing recognizes the same truth: no player like him has existed previously. His combination of size, skill and court presence is unprecedented. His capabilities exceed anything previously witnessed.
His eventual resume will require years to rival Jordan's or James' achievements, but he's already advanced beyond where those legends stood at this career stage. If this trajectory continues as anticipated, he'll claim the title of greatest player in NBA history.