As Victor Wembanyama awaited to learn the identity of his eventual NBA team ahead of the 2023 Draft, Adrian Wojnarowski shared a startling sentiment during ESPN's lottery broadcast.
The Prophecy
"A number of executives who are in the room tonight tell me that they believe Wembanyama could be the best player in the NBA on both the offensive and defensive ends by his third season in the league," Wojnarowski said.
That simply does not happen—at least not under modern circumstances. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was the MVP and a champion by his second NBA season, but he played a full collegiate career. Magic Johnson won Finals MVP as a rookie. LeBron James reached the NBA Finals in his fourth season but got swatted away by a more experienced San Antonio Spurs team.
We usually don't start with those conversations. Michael Jordan didn't truly throw his name into the "GOAT" ring until his first three-peat. James was compared to him from the moment he arrived, but he said his 2016 championship over the 73-win Golden State Warriors was the moment—when it happened—in his 13th season.
Mission Accomplished
But Wojnarowski's prophecy came true. It's Wembanyama's third season, and he's already claimed "best in the league" status.
He and the Spurs just knocked off two-time reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals on the road in Game 7 on Saturday night.
Gilgeous-Alexander was burdened with injuries to his secondary shot-creators, Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams, but Wembanyama was playing with two of his best teammates, De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, also hobbled.
The Statistical Case
In the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 5.4 shot attempts in the restricted area per game. In the first six games of the Western Conference Finals, that number was nearly cut in half—down to three.
Without the rim, the MVP was mortal. He shot 32.1% in the non-restricted portion of the paint, 38.3% in mid-range and 26.1% on 3s. When he didn't draw fouls, he just didn't have an efficient means of attacking San Antonio's Wembanyama-led defense.
This is Wembanyama's competition, and he erased him.
The Unprecedented Climb
It usually takes a few tries to reach this point. Jordan lost to the Bad Boy Pistons three times. James lost to the Boston Celtics twice and got pushed to the brink against them in 2012.
There's a certain rhythm to these things. A young star ascends, loses a few times to the incumbent heavyweights and then finally gets over the top. There wasn't even really a climb here.
The Spurs faced the Thunder in five regular-season games and won four. They beat them in their first postseason matchup. Maybe Wembanyama is just so big that he could pull himself up the mountaintop from a standing start.
Rivalry Just Beginning
The Thunder aren't going anywhere. They'll presumably be among Wembanyama's biggest threats moving forward. They'll probably be healthier if there's a rematch next season, and both sides are loaded with enough assets to improve on the trade market.
The rivalry isn't over.
But this is probably the worst Wembanyama's ever going to be. He's not close to his peak yet.
One of the stories of the season was how effectively Oklahoma City's defense kept Wembanyama away from the rim. He had 23 paint touches in Game 1, according to NBA.com tracking data. Then he had 33 in Games 2-6 combined.
He still can't quite assert his position near the rim as well as he'll be able to in a few years—and his young guards will get better at entering the ball.