The Edmonton Oilers are on the ropes, and their quest to return to a third consecutive Stanley Cup Final has run into trouble in Anaheim. After Sunday's overtime thriller, the Ducks — who had not reached the playoffs in eight prior seasons — are one win shy of advancing to the second round.
Edmonton was priced at 69 per cent implied probability of winning this series before it started; now, they are down to just 21 per cent.
Goaltending Issues Persist
We had serious reservations about Edmonton's goaltending, and those reservations have been validated once more. The combination of Connor Ingram and Tristan Jarry has been dreadful, the duo stopping just 85 per cent of shots faced in the series.
Ducks Outplaying Oilers at Even Strength
Getting outplayed by this Anaheim Ducks team at even strength is surprising, given the talent in the Oilers lineup. Anaheim's outscored Edmonton and is getting 55 per cent of the shot share in the process.
In playoff matchups, head-to-head performance can illuminate where the performance gaps exist. What's standing out immediately? Edmonton's top line is getting outplayed by Anaheim's top line. In the Connor McDavid era you can count the amount of times his line has been outplayed on one hand, but the young guns in Anaheim are giving this group fits.
Spending so much time defending is death by a thousand paper cuts for the Oilers big guns — they're not a great defensive group to begin with and now are spending inordinate amounts of time in the defensive third trying to protect an already besieged goaltending group.
These negative differentials have proved meaningful: the McDavid line is getting outscored 6-to-2 (-4), as is their top pairing of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm.
Power Play Faltering
The exclamation point on all this? Edmonton's supernova power play has been anything but. We've seen struggling Oilers teams many times over saved by a man advantage that looks unstoppable; right now, the Ducks power play is +6 in the series, the Oilers power play just +2.
Bad goaltending, shoddy even strength play, and special teams disadvantage? This is how you can lose a series in five games.
Time for Stars to Step Up
Make no mistake, the Oilers are in real trouble here and if there's ever been a time for the likes of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to put the team on their backs, this is it.
Anaheim has shown up impressively and frankly look the better team in every respect. Either the Oilers run the table here, or we are headed for a long, painful offseason in Alberta.