In one respect, it's a surprise the Vegas Golden Knights are one game away from another Stanley Cup Final appearance. We're talking about a 95-point team that was on the ropes against Utah Mammoth during large stretches of the opening round.
And yet, this is Vegas. The Golden Knights are as reliable as the sun rising and setting come playoff time. The success this franchise has found since the expansion draft a decade ago is without parallel, and even in a relative down year for the team—including firing their head coach with two weeks left in the season—Vegas has found another gear.
They remain several steps ahead of the rest of the National Hockey League, and with one more win will take the head of the Presidents' Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche.
What's Driving Their Western Conference Surge?
Here's what boils down to three specific components:
1. An Indomitable Penalty Kill
The sole reason Vegas was able to survive the Pacific Division this year was through their special teams' play. The power play ranked third in the NHL (9.6 goals per-60 minutes); their penalty kill was eighth (6.9 goals conceded per 60 minutes).
But this playoff run has been defined by the penalty kill and its ability to erase just about every mistake the team has made through the first three rounds. In 15 games, Vegas has been outscored 5-4 (-1) on the penalty kill—a staggering accomplishment. In the NHL's modern era, where scoring is prolific and power plays can single-handedly win a series, a penalty kill capable of playing to break-even level is as lethal a weapon as you can find.
There's no question Carter Hart has been an upgrade in net over previous starter Adin Hill, but the resources available here are impressive. Brayden McNabb, Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin, and Shea Theodore give them two distinct and skilled defensive penalty-kill units capable of slowing down any opposing attack.
To be just one goal underwater on the penalty kill this deep into the playoffs is a remarkable accomplishment and a big reason Vegas is sitting pretty heading into Game 4 of the Western Conference Final.
2. Marner Is Scorching Hot
It's surely a torturous watch for Maple Leafs fans, who wanted to see the playmaking winger chase a Stanley Cup with the team that drafted him back in 2015. Instead, their nightmare scenario is playing out—Marner is thriving in the postseason on a second line with Brett Howden and William Karlsson, and as it stands today is the odds-on favorite for Conn Smythe honours.
He's a big piece of the penalty kill, his line is outscoring teams 10-to-7 (+3) at even strength, and he's leading the entire playoff field in scoring. His seven goals and 11 primary assists alone would lead all other players.
3. Three Stars Deployed Across Separate Lines
One of the interesting wrinkles about how Vegas is deploying their lineup is their three stars—Mark Stone, Jack Eichel and Marner—are playing on distinct lines. Vegas carries one of the deepest forward groups in the league, and against a team like Colorado, that's a must, or your team is at the risk of being skated out of the arena.
From a matchup perspective, it's been Eichel's line going head-to-head with Nathan MacKinnon.