The Chicago Cubs are on a 12-3 run over the last two-plus weeks, and look to keep the good times rolling when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks to begin a weekend series Friday. The Cubs (19-12) won the final two games of their three-game set in San Diego, while the D'backs (16-14) lost two of three in Milwaukee, allowing 13 runs in each defeat.
The Cubs are 11-5 at Wrigley Field, the best home mark in the National League. First pitch from historic Wrigley Field in Chicago is set for 2:20 p.m. ET.
Starting Pitchers
Zac Gallen gets the ball for the Diamondbacks, holding a 1-1 record with a 3.14 ERA. The Cubs counter with Colin Rea, who is 3-1 with a 4.61 ERA.
Betting Odds
Money Line: Cubs -140 (risk $140 to win $100), Diamondbacks +117
Over/Under: 7 runs
Run Line: Available at sportsbooks
Model Prediction
After simulating every pitch 10,000 times, the model is going Over 7 combined runs. The Over has hit in the last three Cubs games and in three of the last four for the Diamondbacks. Chicago ranks No. 3 in MLB in scoring, averaging 5.5 runs per game.
Arizona ranks 11th in runs scored, and its bats have been hotter on the road. Neither Gallen nor Rea lasted even 10 outs in their last start. The model averages Gallen at 5.8 innings and Rea at an even 5.0.
Ketel Marte is due for a big afternoon for Arizona with 1.96 total bases, while Alex Bregman projects at 1.82 total bases for Chicago. The model projects 10.1 combined runs as the Over hits in 75% of simulations.