Sometimes it's better not to say the thing you're thinking. To keep the quiet part quiet. Because there are times when you say the quiet part out loud and later on you end up really wishing you hadn't.
Kenny Atkinson had one of those moments on Sunday. The Cleveland Cavaliers are down 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals to the New York Knicks. No team in NBA history has ever come back from that kind of deficit. Everyone knows that. Atkinson — who was the NBA's Coach of the Year just last season — certainly knows it, too.
Except if you ask him, the Cavs aren't really down 3-0. If you tilt your head and squint at the right kind of numbers the right kind of way, Cleveland is actually winning the series.
Analytically Speaking
"Analytically… we're two out of three in the expected [score]," Atkinson said during media availability on Sunday. "I don't know if you guys follow that, the expected score. And I know you're looking confused."
Confused is one way to put it. Astounded and bemused might be another. To put it in context, Atkinson's point was that the Cavs have gotten good looks in the series, and he was pleased with their process overall. In Game 3, he said the Cavs shot "way below" what was expected and the Knicks shot "way over."
"I know no one wants to hear that," Atkinson said. "[With the] general public, everyone is outcome-based."
A pesky and unfortunate fact. You know what else is outcome-based? The actual NBA Playoffs. The league rewards teams that make real-world shots and win the actual games by advancing them to the next round.
Here on Earth 1, it appears the Knicks are headed for their first NBA Finals since 1999, and there's nothing Atkinson or the Cavs can do about it.
The Doc Rivers Comparison
Atkinson is a bright guy. What he said was something well south of smart for a host of reasons. The whole thing smacked of something Doc Rivers said last year. Rivers is a Hall of Famer when it comes to quotes and can't-miss in terms of content — which does not always mean that what he says necessarily reflects well on him.
When asked about the three times his teams blew 3-1 leads in the playoffs — with the Magic in 2003, then with the Clippers in 2015 and 2020 — Rivers said:
"I don't get enough credit for the three wins. I get credit for losing. I always say, 'What if we had lost to Houston in six?' No one cares. One of the things that I'm proud of is we've never been swept. All the coaches have been swept in the playoffs. My teams achieve. A lot of them overachieve and I'm very proud of that."
If you don't count all the games he lost, Rivers won them all. If you look at the expected scores instead of the actual scoreboard, the Cavs are beating the Knicks. Same energy.
Social Media Reaction
In an unsurprising development, various accounts on social media had some fun at Atkinson's expense. Dunking on him for those comments was to be expected.
What was harder to understand was why he bothered saying it at all. Maybe he was trying to make himself feel better about the Cavs faceplanting so far, or maybe it was a message to his players and/or Cavs fans that they could climb back into the series if only their shots start falling.
Whatever the motivation, it came off as decidedly tone deaf.