The Edmonton Oilers are on the ropes, and their quest to return to a third consecutive Stanley Cup Final has hit major trouble in Anaheim.
After Sunday's overtime thriller, the Ducks—who had not reached the playoffs in eight prior seasons—are one win shy of advancing to the second round. This would be a meaningful upset: Edmonton was priced at a 69 per cent implied probability of winning this series before it started; now, they are down to just 21 per cent.
Goaltending Issues Validate Concerns
We had serious reservations about Edmonton's goaltending, and those concerns have been validated once more. The combination of Connor Ingram and Tristan Jarry has been dreadful, stopping just 85 per cent of shots faced in the series.
Even Strength Struggles Raise Alarm
Getting outplayed by the Anaheim Ducks at even strength is shocking, given the talent in the Oilers lineup. Anaheim is outscoring Edmonton and is getting 55 per cent of the shot share in the process.
What's most concerning is how Edmonton's top line is getting outplayed by Anaheim's top line. In the Connor McDavid era, you can count the amount of times his line has been outplayed on one hand, but the young guns in Anaheim are giving this group fits.
Spending so much time defending the run of play is death by a thousand paper cuts for the Oilers' big guns. They are not a great defensive group to begin with and now are spending inordinate amounts of time in the defensive third trying to protect an already besieged goaltending group.
Statistical Breakdown
These negative differentials have proved meaningful:
- The McDavid line is getting outscored 6-to-2 (-4)
- Their top pairing of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm is also being outplayed
The Ducks are finding their way to dangerous scoring areas with ease—shots and goals are coming from between the circles and near the net.
Special Teams Disadvantage
Edmonton's supernova power play has been anything but. We have seen struggling Oilers teams many times over saved by a man advantage that looks unstoppable; right now, the Ducks' power play is +6 in the series, while the Oilers' power play is just +2.
Bad goaltending, shoddy even strength play, and a special teams disadvantage? This is how you can lose a series in five games.
Time for Stars to Step Up
Make no mistake—the Oilers are in real trouble. If there’s ever been a time for the likes of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to put the team on their backs, this is it.
Anaheim has shown up impressively and frankly looks the better team in every respect. Either the Oilers run the table here, or we are headed for a long, painful offseason in Alberta.