Three home underdogs take the floor on Thursday night in the NBA Playoffs, and only one – the Minnesota Timberwolves – can advance to the conference semifinals with a win.
In the Eastern Conference, it's possible the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics win and set up an interesting second-round rematch after New York beat Boston in the 2025 NBA Playoffs.
However, the Atlanta Hawks (2.5-point underdogs against the Knicks) and Philadelphia 76ers (5.5-point underdogs against Boston) aren't going to go quietly.
Philly upset the Celtics in Boston in Game 5 to extend their season, riding a huge game from Joel Embiid (33 points, eight assists) to a double-digit win. Meanwhile, Atlanta is looking to snap a two-game skid that has given the Knicks a 3-2 series lead in this first-round matchup. The Hawks have won two games (both by one point) behind big scoring games from CJ McCollum.
Betting Record
2025-26 season record: 275-234 (-0.36 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1566-1472-27 (+32.79 units)
Thursday's Best Bets
Boston Celtics -5.5 (-115) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
How many times have we seen Boston shoot terribly in a playoff loss and then bounce back with a win?
Boston is 25-14 on the road in the playoffs since the 2020-21 season, and it covered this number in both road wins against Philly earlier in the series. Embiid is a factor – Boston doesn't have a player that can match up with him – but the recipe for the Celtics is too simple: shoot better than they did in Game 5.
The Celtics are shooting just 27.2 percent from deep in their two losses in this series and 41.6 percent from 3 in their wins. I expect a bounce-back showing from a Boston team that is 17-9 against the spread as a road favorite, posting an average scoring margin of +12.7 points in those games.
Philadelphia emptied the tank on Tuesday, playing Embiid a ton of minutes to force a Game 6. With a quick turnaround on Thursday, I think that favors Boston, which doesn't need to play its "A" game to win this series.
Karl-Anthony Towns 35+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (-149)
New York Knicks big man Karl-Anthony Towns has been awesome in the playoffs, averaging 20.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game while shooting 59.3 percent from the field and 47.1 percent from beyond the arc.
New York has run more of the offense through Towns in the last few games, including Game 5 when Jalen Brunson poured in 39 points. Towns still finished with 16 points and six dimes in that matchup, giving him 16 assists over the last two games.
The former No. 1 overall pick has put up 37, 28, 42, 40 and 36 PRA in his five games in this series. The Hawks simply don't have a player that can match up on Towns one-on-one, and he's found his 3-point shot after shooting under 37 percent from deep in the regular season.
I'm buying KAT to lead the way with the Knicks looking to close out this series on Thursday.
Jayson Tatum 10+ Rebounds (-167)
Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum turned in his third double-digit rebounding game of the playoffs, putting up 16 boards in the team's Game 5 loss.
Tatum is now averaging 15.6 rebound chances per game in the playoffs, and he's put up 10.5, 9.7, 11.5 and 10.6 rebounds in the last five games. He's been active on the glass and should continue that trend in Game 6.
Minnesota Timberwolves-Atlanta Hawks Parlay (-154)
This parlay ties together the two home underdogs looking to extend their seasons on Thursday night. Both teams have shown fight throughout this series, and I'll back them to cover the spread in their respective games.