The 2026 NBA Finals are set: the San Antonio Spurs host the New York Knicks for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, marking the first meeting between these franchises on this stage since 1999.
The Knicks, riding an 11-game postseason winning streak, are in their first Finals appearance in 27 years. That's the same Spurs franchise that claimed the first of their five titles back then, and now Victor Wembanyama has brought San Antonio back to the championship round for the first time since 2014. The Spurs edged past the defending champion Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals over the weekend and will host Game 1 on Wednesday night.
The matchup already has enough history; the job is to keep the reading list shorter than the tension.
New York hasn't taken the floor since last Monday, having played just four times since May 11. That kind of pause can sharpen a team or leave it rust-covered—experience suggests the truth usually lands somewhere uncomfortable between the two.
FanDuel lists the Spurs as -205 favorites, with home-court advantage and Wemby roaming the paint.
Expert picks
Botkin — Spurs in 7: "This is going to be a great series. The Knicks belong in the league's upper crust. They're equipped to combat Victor Wembanyama on both ends, with a sturdy defender in OG Anunoby who can work Wemby off his spots, and Mitchell Robinson as a physical seven-footer who will challenge him at the rim. Karl-Anthony Towns can pull Wemby out of the paint if needed, but Josh Hart will likely be the initial matchup so Wemby can roam as a paint protector. If Hart starts making open threes, the Spurs have a problem. If he doesn't, the Knicks can go five-out and create spacing. The Knicks are deep. The Spurs are deeper. Jalen Brunson can pull up for three comfortably if Wemby drops to cut off penetration. It sounds like I'd be picking the Knicks, right? Wrong. I'm going with the same rationale that led me to pick San Antonio at the start of the playoffs—Wembanyama is the biggest difference-maker in the game today. The Knicks can shoot, yes, but they do a lot of damage in the paint, and Wemby basically shuts that option off."
Gonzalez — Spurs in 6: "Adam Silver has to be thrilled about this matchup. Wembanyama and a young, ascendant Spurs team that's well ahead of schedule against the New York Knicks, with that fan base and that arena, in a rematch of the 1999 Finals. Blockbuster ratings shouldn't be hard to find. The Knicks are on an epic 11-game winning streak with the largest point differential in NBA history over that span, and they've had plenty of rest between series—they'll be fresh and confident. But they haven't faced competition like this. Rolling the Hawks, Sixers and Cavs is altogether different from facing down Wemby and San Antonio's big, athletic guards and wings. The Knicks also won't have home-court advantage this time around. All that adds up to another title for the Spurs."
Maloney — Spurs in 7: "The Knicks have been a buzzsaw in the playoffs. They haven't lost since April 23, they have the best offensive rating (123.3), defensive rating (103.5) and net rating (plus-19.8) among playoff teams. Their consecutive sweeps of the Sixers and Cavaliers earned them significant rest. Beating teams as thoroughly as they have—four 30-point wins and 11 of their 12 victories by double digits—means something, regardless of the level of competition. However, the Knicks haven't played a team as good as the Spurs, particularly on the defensive end. During the regular season, the Hawks were 10th in defensive rating, the Cavaliers were 15th and the Sixers were 17th. The Spurs, with Wembanyama leading the way, were third, and they rank second in postseason defensive rating (104.4). Wembanyama eliminates easy baskets in the paint, where the Knicks have been dominant. The Knicks lead all playoff teams in restricted area shots per game (29.6) and are shooting 68.1% there. They're also first in points in the paint per game (53.3) and fifth in free-throw rate (0.307). They won't have that level of success against the Spurs. This series may come down to whether the Knicks can continue shooting 40% from three-point range as they did in the first three rounds. The Knicks have offensive talent and depth, and have been connected on both ends—but Mitchell Robinson's status is up in the air, the Spurs have home-court advantage, and betting against Wembanyama just feels foolish at this point."
Quinn — Knicks in 7: "Over an 82-game season, the Spurs are probably better than the Knicks. All things considered, though, this is a nightmare matchup for San Antonio. There might not be a better pair of defenders to throw at Wembanyama than OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson—one long, mobile wing who doesn't sacrifice strength, and one ultra-physical big to wear him down across seven games, assuming Robinson can play. When the Finals begin, the Knicks will have played four games in 24 days. The Spurs are coming off a seven-game war with Oklahoma City. De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are already playing at less than 100%. The longer this series goes, the better for New York. San Antonio hasn't faced a true five-out opponent yet. The first battleground will be Josh Hart's shooting—the Spurs will start with Wembanyama guarding Hart and daring him to shoot, as they did against the Thunder. Josh Hart has made over 43% of his wide-open threes this season. If he misses, the Knicks can go to the look that swung Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, with Landry Shamet in his place. Wembanyama is perhaps the greatest rim-protector in NBA history. Get him in space, and he's mortal. Jalen Brunson is a more comfortable pull-up three-point shooter than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander."