Snyder's Soapbox is a weekly column exploring baseball concepts that often go overlooked.
The Butterfly Effect Explained
Are you familiar with the concept of the "butterfly effect"? Simply put, one small change alters everything that follows.
In poker, moving the top card of a deck to the bottom changes every hand that follows. That one small adjustment ripples through the entire game.
How It Applies to Baseball
In baseball, there is absolutely a butterfly effect—something fans too often fail to realize.
Picture this: a baserunner commits a blunder and gets thrown out on the basepaths. The next batter hits a home run. Invariably, you'll hear someone say, "That should've been a two-run homer!"
Well, no. Not so fast.
The situation dictates how a pitcher works the hitter. His approach with the bases empty differs greatly from when there's a runner on. We can't assume the hitter would still hit a home run—odds are, he wouldn't have.
This principle applies to players who change teams as well. We can't assume a player would perform the exact same way had he stayed put or gone elsewhere.
Real-World Examples
Remember when Albert Pujols signed with the Angels prior to the 2012 season? He didn't hit a home run until his 29th game with the team. You can't say he would've gone 28 games without a home run had he stayed with the Cardinals.
There's something to be said for continuity and the lineup around the hitter. Pujols could've hit a home run barrage had he re-signed in St. Louis—but we'll never know.
We can apply the same logic to this season. Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers and is having a lackluster season by his standards. As a Cubs fan, you don't get to say, "Wow, we dodged a bullet."
Tucker could be setting the world on fire for Chicago. We don't know!
Apply this thinking to Pete Alonso had he stuck with the Mets, or Bo Bichette if he re-signed with the Blue Jays.
The Bottom Line
It might seem like a silly thing to focus on, but the point is legitimate. Every single action on a baseball field changes everything that comes after.
Do not be one of those offenders who assumes that home run was still gonna happen if the runner didn't get thrown out at third base.