The Detroit Tigers will take all the good news they can get right now. Prior to Monday's loss at Comerica Park, ace lefty and reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal threw a bullpen session, his second since having surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow on May 6.
"Coming off a bullpen session like that, no symptoms at all of what I was experiencing prior," Skubal said via MLB.com. "And that wouldn't be the case two weeks ago, when I threw my last bullpen before having the surgery. So I think all things considered, it's a very positive thing. And I haven't had any symptoms since the surgery."
Skubal's Recovery Timeline
The usual recovery period for surgery to remove a loose body is 2-3 months, though Skubal underwent a new, less invasive procedure — the "NanoNeedle" — that will chop weeks off the recovery time. For comparison, New York Yankees lefty Carlos Rodón had loose bodies removed from his elbow in October and didn't make his season debut until May 10.
Although it is very encouraging Skubal is throwing full bullpens less than two weeks out from surgery, there is no set date for his return to Detroit's rotation just yet. There are still boxes he has to check with his rehab, which likely includes pitching in minor-league rehab games.
"I'd love to sit here and say I'm going to be back on this date. I just don't know that," Skubal said. "There's a lot of things that happen, whether it be a rehab assignment or something. Getting through those starts obviously matters, and that'll determine how I'm back here, too."
Tigers Sliding Without Their Ace
Skubal made his last start on April 29 and the Tigers are 5-12 since. They've lost 11 of their last 13 games while being outscored 69-32. The Tigers miss Skubal, absolutely, but this slump extends beyond his absence.
They've scored more than three runs only three times in those last 13 games — two games with four runs and one game with six runs. The Tigers are short on power (23rd in home runs), the bullpen has been a bit leaky, and they have 12 other players on the injured list in addition to Skubal.
Among the injured are Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, GLEYBER TORRES and Justin Verlander. The Tigers are essentially a three-man army on offense (Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle) with a patchwork pitching staff.
Playoff Race Remains Competitive
Even with a 20-28 record and a minus-19 run differential, Detroit sits only 2½ games out of a wild-card spot in the American League. It's a two-game deficit in the loss column with 114 games to play.
The more important number may be 65 — that's the number of games the Tigers have between now and the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Trade Deadline Outlook
Skubal will be a free agent after the season, and the Tigers will have to crash hard in these next 65 games to entertain trading him at the deadline. If they're still 2½ games back on Aug. 3, they'd likely keep him, add to the roster around him, and make a push for a postseason spot.
Assuming he returns from surgery without a hitch, Skubal would instantly become the best available pitcher and the best available player period at the trade deadline if the Tigers do put him on the market. Every contender — Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, etc. — would make a run at him.
The bidding war would be fierce, but that's a conversation for another day. The Tigers will hope that change comes quickly — starting with getting their ace back on the mound.