The question once seemed unthinkable, given what recent history has conditioned us to believe about the team. But the current standings and reasonable projections force us to ask: Will the Houston Astros be deadline sellers, and if so, what might that look like?
We're talking about the team that's recorded 10 straight winning full seasons and has made the playoffs in nine of the last 11 years. Not long ago, Houston had advanced at least as far as the American League Championship Series in seven straight seasons and won the World Series in both 2017 and 2022.
Things are quite different now. Thanks to an inordinate run of injuries early in the season, some age-related decline, and years of free-agent departures, the Astros currently sit as one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball. Their current record of 16-27 places them in a last-place tie in the weak AL West. Their run differential of minus-44 is tied for worst in MLB.
Also not encouraging is that the Astros have thus far played the weakest schedule in all of MLB, measured by opponents' average winning percentage. Moving forward, that eases somewhat, as they rank 18th in remaining strength of schedule. All of this brings us to the Astros' current playoff odds from the usual sources—figures that aren't promising, even with what may wind up being a very low bar for contention in the very top-heavy AL.
All the serious injuries afflicting core contributors right now mean the Astros may not be positioned to improve upon what is presently a 102-loss pace. Let's also consider that the farm system is currently one of the worst in the game.
This brings us back to the possibility that the Astros move some notable veterans at the deadline in the name of improving their young talent base and shifting organizational focus to the long term. If that does come to pass, it could make them the most compelling team to watch leading up to the August 3 deadline.
Given the current nature of the roster and farm system, that may indeed be a defensible path, and they have the pieces to do more than just flip a couple of middle relievers to contenders. This is not a recommendation—especially with so much schedule left to play before teams need to label themselves as buyers or sellers. Rather, this is an entry point into discussing what a major selloff in Houston might look like.
The Big Prize: Yordan Alvarez
If the Astros commit to selling, Yordan Alvarez would be the prize of the deadline. Alvarez boasts a career OPS+ of 165, which places him behind just Aaron Judge and Mike Trout on the active career leaderboard. Yes, Alvarez is ahead of Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani, among many others.
This season, he's enjoying an MVP-grade rebound campaign after injuries waylaid his 2025. Thus far in 2026, his age-29 season, he's slashing .308/.413/.616 with 13 home runs and 98 total bases in 43 games—and almost as many walks as strikeouts.
When healthy, Alvarez is in the discussion for best hitter on the planet, and that's the case this year. His contract makes him an even more attractive target. He's locked up through 2028 on the six-year, $115 million extension he signed prior to the 2023 season.
Other Trade Candidates
Beyond Alvarez, the Astros have several other veterans who could interest contending teams:
- José Altuve - Future Hall of Famer who still contributes when healthy
- Isaac Paredes - Versatile infielder with power
- Josh Hader - Elite closer for contenders
- Jeremy Peña - Defensive standout shortstop
- Hunter Brown - Young pitcher with upside
The Bigger Picture
At some point, the central matter may become whether owner Jim Crane will opt for a deeper teardown should Houston's fortunes not improve over the next 11 weeks or so. Crane has already committed to one such drastic measure when he greenlit the full-on tank job that directly led to that decade-plus of success now imperiled.
He has first-hand experience with a teardown and rebuild that worked out. If the Astros do indeed decide it's time for a major organizational pivot, they could offer one of the more interesting trade chips in baseball—both now and moving forward.