The Montreal Canadiens are four wins away from the Eastern Conference Final. Another division rival stands in their path.
Dobes Must Outplay Lyon Again
Dispatching the Tampa Bay Lightning was no small feat. After seven games, the difference between these two teams was non-existent. Both teams had five power-play goals. Montreal was one goal better at even strength, outscoring the Lightning 11-to-10.
Goaltending is heavily deterministic in playoff series outcomes. Jakub Dobes outplaying Andrei Vasilevskiy was the ultimate difference maker. One could argue the only goalie who showed better in the first round was Carolina's Frederik Andersen.
When two teams are this close in quality, goaltending will be the difference more times than not. Tampa Bay had more of the puck throughout the series, especially in Game 7, but Dobes' 28 saves on Sunday were enough to get the job done.
Montreal will need Dobes to outplay Alex Lyon and Buffalo in the second round.
Top Line Must Reclaim Dominance
To dispatch the Sabres, Montreal urgently needs to get its top line going. It's been rare that Montreal's young guns at the top of the lineup have been held in check like they were against Tampa Bay.
The main reason Montreal was so competitive all year was because of their dynamic trio at the top of the lineup. Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky formed one of the league's deadliest lines all season long. They combined playmaking ability and finishing skill that can break down opposing defenses quickly.
That was not the case against Tampa Bay. The Lightning threw a heavy dose of Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Nikita Kucherov against Montreal's best line and had tremendous success.
The Canadiens' top line was four goals underwater in the series. Without the trio of Alex Texier, Kirby Dach, and Zach Bolduc outscoring Tampa Bay 6-0 in their minutes, Montreal might not be talking about a second-round appearance.
Given their track record of success, it's easy to chalk this up as a one-off. The Lightning are one of the few teams in the league with the personnel to match up against Montreal's best.
Part of winning in the postseason is not relying on the same few players to outperform every single night. If that were the case, the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl-led Edmonton Oilers would have multiple Stanley Cups by now.
Credit to Montreal's depth for picking up the slack when the team needed it most. But the Canadiens are going to need more from their big guns if they want to upset the Sabres in round two.
Sabres Present Different Challenge
Buffalo is a different sort of problem for Montreal. They may not have an elite five-man matchup unit like Tampa Bay, but they have incredible depth. They will be able to roll three lines and three pairings confidently, just like they did against the Boston Bruins in the first round.
Buffalo is not a perfect team, but you will not find many lineups deeper than this group. That's going to create problems for Montreal's depth players, too.
What Montreal Needs to Advance
In short, Montreal survived the first round on elite goaltending and depth scoring. Advancing against a team like Buffalo will require their star trio to reclaim their dominance.