The Edmonton Oilers are on the ropes, and their quest to return to a third consecutive Stanley Cup Final has run into trouble in Anaheim. After Sunday's overtime thriller, the Ducks—who had not reached the playoffs in eight prior seasons—are one win shy of advancing to the second round.
Series Upset Taking Shape
This would be a meaningful upset. Edmonton was priced at 69 per cent implied probability of winning this series before it started; now, they are down to just 21 per cent. The one result that has undoubtedly caught me off guard? It's been this plucky Anaheim Ducks team giving a veteran-led Edmonton Oilers club all they can handle.
Goaltending Woes Plague Oilers
We had serious reservations about Edmonton's goaltending, and those reservations have been validated once more. The combination of Connor Ingram and Tristan Jarry has been dreadful, the duo stopping just 85 per cent of shots faced in the series.
Ducks Dominating at Even Strength
But bad goaltending isn't shocking. Getting outplayed by this Anaheim Ducks team at even strength is, however, given the talent in the Oilers lineup. Anaheim's outscored Edmonton and is getting 55 per cent of the shot share in the process.
In playoff matchups I love to analyze head-to-head performance because it can be illuminating as to where the performance gaps exist. What stands out immediately? Edmonton's top line is getting outplayed by Anaheim's top line. In the Connor McDavid era you can count the amount of times his line has been outplayed on one hand, but the young guns in Anaheim are giving this group fits.
Spending so much time defending the run of play is death by a thousand paper cuts for the Oilers big guns—they're not a great defensive group to begin with and now are spending inordinate amounts of time in the defensive third trying to protect an already besieged goaltending group.
These big negative differentials have proved meaningful: the McDavid line is getting outscored 6-to-2 (-4), as is their top pairing of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm.
Special Teams Disadvantage
The exclamation point on all this? Edmonton's supernova power play has been anything but. We have seen struggling Oilers teams many times over saved by a man advantage that looks unstoppable; right now, the Ducks power play is +6 in the series, the Oilers power play just +2.
Time for Stars to Deliver
Make no mistake, the Oilers are in real trouble here and if there's ever been a time for the likes of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to put the team on their backs, this is it. Anaheim has shown up impressively and frankly look the better team in every respect.
Either the Oilers run the table here, or we are headed for a long, painful offseason in Alberta.