Before the 2025-26 season began, a New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Eastern Conference finals felt almost preordained. With the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers presumably out of the mix and no other obvious contenders in the picture, the widespread expectation was that last year's No. 1 seed and the postseason runner-up would eventually find their way to one another with a trip to the Finals on the line.
And then, once the games actually started, the perceived likelihood of this exact matchup started to plummet. Cleveland limped its way out of the gate. New York's hot start gave way to a disastrous early January swoon. The Pistons and Celtics ascended. Neither the Knicks nor the Cavaliers earned top-two seeds in the conference.
Today, neither is the team we expected they'd be in October. They've both had to change to get here. In Cleveland's case, that change was more literal. They turned Darius Garland into James Harden and shuffled their bench. In New York's case, it was spiritual. Last year's players are mostly in place, but throughout the season and especially through their ongoing seven-game playoff winning streak, the ways in which Mike Brown is deploying them have changed drastically.
So these are technically the uniforms we expected in this matchup... but they aren't quite the teams we thought we'd get here. That makes the matchup dynamics a bit more complicated than we might have expected when we penciled the Knicks and Cavaliers into the Eastern Conference finals last summer. So with that series now at hand, let's attempt to answer the five biggest questions going into the series.
1. Who's Cleveland's fifth starter?
Statistically speaking, no one has defended Jalen Brunson better this season than Dean Wade. Across three regular-season matchups, Brunson shot 1 of 15 from the floor when Wade was his primary defender, according to NBA.com tracking data. In total, 16 other players defended Brunson for at least 15 shots. He made at least five against everyone besides Wade.
But Wade is as close to an offensive zero as it gets right now. He played 106 total minutes in the last five games of the Detroit series -- and attempted just seven shots in those games. Ready for a mind-boggling stat? Dean Wade hasn't made a free throw since January.
As helpful as he can be on Brunson, he gives a lot of that value back on the other end, since he's such an easy hiding place for Brunson on so many defensive possessions.
By Game 7 of the Pistons series, the Cavaliers decided they could no longer play 4-on-5. Max Strus took Wade's spot in the starting lineup. He's the best balance of offense and defense among Cleveland's three realistic choices for fifth starter, with Sam Merrill representing the offensive extreme. He also started against a very different New York team in 2023, when his Miami Heat knocked them out in the second round.
But Strus has no hope whatsoever against Brunson, at least one-on-one. Cleveland would have to scheme help in his direction.
The early guess here would be that Wade continues to start, but Strus plays more minutes. That was the case in the Detroit series. Starting Wade offers only one necessary utility: defending the opposing point guard. Bringing him off the bench makes it harder to align his minutes with Brunson's, when he's needed here.
Still, expect Cleveland to try a bunch of defenders on Brunson early in the series, because if there is a way to survive defensively without Wade cramping the offense, that would probably be Cleveland's preference. Dennis Schröder is a certified point-of-attack pest. Even Keon Ellis might get a swing at Brunson. This is a much more favorable matchup for him size-wise than Cade Cunningham was.
The first two games should see a relatively deep rotation for Cleveland. Kenny Atkinson will trim it as he goes.