Welcome to Snyder's Soapbox! Here I pontificate about matters related to Major League Baseball on a weekly basis. Some topics will be pressing, others may seem insignificant, and most will fall somewhere in between.
Are you familiar with the concept of the "butterfly effect"? Generally speaking, it's when one small change alters everything that follows—for example, moving the top card of a deck to the bottom changes every hand that follows. In baseball, there absolutely is a butterfly effect, something fans too often fail to realize.
The Baserunner Scenario
Picture a baserunner committing a blunder and getting thrown out on the basepaths. The next batter then hits a home run. Invariably, you'll hear someone say, "That should've been a two-run homer!"
Well, no. Not so fast. The situation dictates how a pitcher works the hitter. How he approaches a hitter with bases empty is different than with a runner on. We can't assume the hitter would still hit a home run. Odds are, he wouldn't have. That's the butterfly effect!
Player Transactions Count Too
We can't assume a player would have performed the exact same way if he didn't change teams—or went to a different team.
Remember when Albert Pujols signed with the Angels prior to the 2012 season? He didn't hit a home run until his 29th game with the team. You can't say he'd have gone 28 games without a home run to start the season with the Cardinals had he stayed put. There's something to be said for continuity and the lineup around the hitter.
Pujols could well have launched a home run barrage had he re-signed with St. Louis. We'll never know because we can't possibly know.
We can apply this to this season. Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers and is having a lackluster season by his standards. As a Cubs fan, you don't get to say, "Wow, we dodged a bullet with that one." Tucker could be setting the world on fire for Chicago. We don't know!
Apply this logic to other situations: Pete Alonso had he stuck with the Mets, or Bo Bichette if he re-upped with the Blue Jays.
Bad umpire calls factor in here too, though replay has reduced their frequency.
The Bottom Line
It might seem like a silly thing on which to harp, but the point is legitimate: every single action on a baseball field changes everything that comes after.
Do not be one of those offenders who assumes that home run was still gonna happen if the runner didn't get thrown out at third base.