Not all NFL schedules are created equal. Every team gets 17 games in 18 weeks, but multiple factors go into assessing teams' season prospects. There are the easy ones, like using last year's records to determine strength of schedule, and slightly more difficult ones, like using projected opponents' records.
Other factors matter too — rest advantages and disadvantages, bye week timing, location, and weather. The NFL doesn't appear to try to even out some of those factors.
With the schedule now set, we can roll the different factors into one and note which teams are in for the toughest sledding overall.
The Bottom Dwellers
Teams such as the Cardinals and Dolphins are likely in for tough years regardless of opponents because their rosters simply aren't strong enough in enough areas. Perhaps they surprise here or there, but in all likelihood, we'll be doing mock drafts rather than playoff projections for those teams.
Playoff Contenders With Brutal Paths
Here are five such teams with enough talent to be playoff contenders but a difficult path to make those projections realities.
1. Green Bay Packers
Shortly before the NFL schedule came out, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Micah Parsons is likely to miss the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. That's tough development news for Green Bay.
When the schedule came out, the Packers may have breathed a sigh of relief with the Vikings, Jets, Falcons and Buccaneers as the first four opponents. Perhaps Parsons returns after that. But Parsons returning and Parsons at full strength are two different things.
Just as he could be getting his legs under him, the Packers face the Bears, Cowboys and Lions from Weeks 5-7 before a short week against the Panthers, who beat Green Bay last year.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Packers have five games in which they'll have less rest than their opponent does. That includes a potentially crucial Christmas Day game at the Bears in Week 16. Add in that the Lions and Vikings could both be much improved this season, and Green Bay could be in for some tough sledding.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
The schedule makers did the Chargers a disservice when it comes to rest. Jim Harbaugh's team will have a rest disadvantage in seven games this season.
Plus there is an absolutely brutal schedule for them from Weeks 3-10. During that run, the Bills are coming off a mini bye, the Chiefs are coming off a bye, the Texans are coming off a bye, and the Ravens are coming off a mini bye. Three of those four games are on the road.
3. Denver Broncos
The Broncos — who were in the AFC Championship last year — are a divisional opponent. Combined with a healthy Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, the Chargers face a daunting division.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs, with a healthy Patrick Mahomes, are divisional opponents for the Chargers. Even the Raiders should be improved this year, considering it's nearly impossible for them to be worse than they were last year.
5. Chicago Bears
The Bears were one of three teams, along with the Jaguars and the Patriots, to jump from five or fewer wins in 2024 to 11 or more wins in 2025.
That type of jump is awesome, and it points to an arrow pointing up. Unfortunately in the NFL, progress like this is rarely linear, and a big jump one year historically has meant a relative fall the next.