Arsenal took another step towards the Premier League title with a 1-0 win over Burnley on Monday night, securing all three points thanks to a Kai Havertz header from a set-piece.
The Gunners now sit atop the table with one game remaining, keeping their fate in their own hands as they chase a first league title in 22 years.
Arsenal's Title Charge
Arsenal responded superbly from their supposed fatal defeat at the Etihad Stadium last month. While their recent wins have been fraught with tension, their stubborn defense has catapulted the Gunners towards glory.
They've struggled to blow opponents away, Fulham notwithstanding, but their unwillingness to wilt at critical junctures means they remain in control heading into the final day.
Opta's Supercomputer Prediction
Opta gave Arsenal an 87.8% chance of winning their penultimate game — the second-highest likelihood of victory over the past five Premier League seasons.
Despite the narrow 1-0 win, Arsenal's title chances didn't significantly increase. However, they remain heavy favorites, given they may not need to win again to seal the title.
Opta gives Arsenal an 86.44% chance of ending their title drought this week.
Manchester City's Dilemma
Pep Guardiola's decade-long reign at Manchester City is coming to an end. The Spanish manager is aiming to avoid back-to-back seasons without winning the league title for the first time in his managerial career.
City aren't completely dead yet. They're five points back with two fixtures left, and Opta rates their chances of reclaiming the title at 13.56%.
If City win their remaining two games and Arsenal draw on the final day, the title could be decided on goal difference.
Remaining Fixtures
Arsenal: Bournemouth (A) — May 19; Crystal Palace (A) — May 24
Manchester City: Bournemouth (A) — May 19; Aston Villa (H) — May 24
City must claim six points from their remaining two games to stay in contention. They travel to red-hot Bournemouth on Tuesday night, where the Cherries are 16 games unbeaten and chasing Champions League football.
Anything but a victory for City will crown Arsenal champions.
Take it to the final day, and City may fancy their chances. Aston Villa visit the Etihad with a Europa League final hangover, having already secured a top-five finish. Unai Emery won't fancy doing his former club any favors.