The Stanley Cup Playoffs have arrived, featuring eight compelling first-round matchups. We'll start with the Eastern Conference, where the series were settled on Tuesday night, with the Western Conference preview to follow later this week.
Carolina Hurricanes vs Ottawa Senators
The Carolina Advantage
The Hurricanes have struggled through playoff series characterized by an inability to convert dominant possession time and scoring chances into goals. One factor that could help is facing Ottawa's goaltending, which was inconsistent throughout much of the season.
The combination of starter Linus Ullmark and backups James Reimer and Leevi Merilainen underperformed replacement-level goaltending throughout the year. Ullmark stopped just 89% of shots faced, which is significantly below his typical performance level.
If Ullmark's underperformance continues into the playoffs, Carolina's forwards will have significant opportunities. Though he's a much better goaltender than his numbers suggest, the risk remains real.
The Ottawa Advantage
The Senators have been much better in the second half of the season. Since returning from the Olympic break, Ottawa ranks 10th in even-strength goal differential (+0.5 per 60 minutes), 10th on the power play, and 5th on the penalty kill.
These numbers reflect a quality playoff team comparable to the Hurricanes over the same timeframe. Ottawa has heated up at the right time and is playing better than full-season numbers indicate.
Pick: Carolina in seven.
Buffalo Sabres vs Boston Bruins
The Buffalo Sabres ended a painful 14-year playoff drought with a division championship in Lindy Ruff's second year behind the bench. Buffalo has become one of the league's deadliest offenses largely because prospects drafted during the drought developed into productive NHL players.
The breakthrough came from quality goaltending. Journeyman Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen formed a surprisingly effective tandem, making Buffalo a serious threat to emerge from the Eastern Conference.
The Buffalo Advantage
The Sabres may lack a Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon, but they are as deep as any team in the NHL. Buffalo can comfortably roll three high-powered lines with one of the league's deepest blue lines.
Pay particular attention to the top pairing of Rasmus Dahlin and Mattias Samuelsson. They outscored opponents 47 to 29 at even strength this season and excel in all three zones.
The Boston Advantage
It starts and ends in net. Beyond David Pastrnak, no player has been more important to the Bruins' success than Jeremy Swayman, who deserves serious Vezina Trophy consideration.
Swayman was 52 goals better than replacement-level goaltending in 55 appearances—erasing nearly a goal per game over the course of the season. Great goaltending can single-handedly take down teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Player to Watch
The Sabres are simply a much better team than the Bruins, though Swayman could be the ultimate X-factor. Another critical player is Pastrnak. The Bruins are extremely reliant on his playmaking—he finished 32 points ahead of second-leading scorer Morgan Geekie with a 100-point season.
Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Not dissimilar to the Central Division's two-versus-three matchup, this series feels too good for the first round. Montreal and Tampa Bay cruised through portions of the season but will face each other in what promises to be an exciting opening-round battle.