The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are about to square off for the 2026 Western Conference crown, and with that, the NBA's next great rivalry has officially arrived. We've known it was coming, and it's not going anywhere for maybe the next decade as set up as these teams are for the long run. This will be absolute theatre.
1. Can SGA's scoring level back up?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely about to win his second straight MVP. He has averaged well north of 30 PPG the last two regular seasons, and he averaged 29.9 in last year's playoffs. He's at 29.1 PPG so far in these playoffs, but the bulk of that number comes from his first-round explosion vs. the Suns. He "only" averaged 24.5 against the Lakers, even that number juiced by a big 35-point performance in the clincher.
I don't think that's going to be enough against the Spurs, even with Jalen Williams set to return. It's a fair bet that a lot of OKC's peripheral production, or at least efficiency, could take a hit as Victor Wembanyama forces a larger chunk of their offense outside of the paint.
The Thunder need something very close to 30 PPG in this series from SGA, and even that might be conservative. Can he do that on a heavy diet of pull-up jumpers and 3-pointers? Of course. Will he? We're about to find out.
2. Which team is actually deeper?
The depth in this series is off the charts. Both teams can easily go 10 deep. The Thunder are so loaded that Aaron Wiggins, who would start for a lot of NBA teams, wasn't even in the rotation against the Lakers. Isaiah Joe only played seven minutes in the clincher, but if this thing turns into a 3-point contest as OKC struggles to score in the paint against Wemby, he would be a major swing player.
Through eight playoff games, the Thunder have won SGA's 105 bench minutes by 59 points with a better offensive rating. Thank you, Ajay Mitchell. The Spurs, meanwhile, destroyed the Blazers and Wolves in Wemby's minutes and stayed at +3 per game in his absences.
So far in these playoffs, the Spurs have six players averaging double-digits while the Thunder basically have five (Isaiah Hartenstein is at 9.9, while Williams has only played two games but we can certainly count him as a high-end scorer).
I give San Antonio's depth, particularly on the perimeter, a slight nod. That's important because Wembanyama alone accounts for Holmgren and Hartenstein.
3. Who wins a 3-point contest?
On paper, it looks like this could be more of a 3-point series than either of these teams would prefer. Both teams average north of 100 combined 3-point attempts per game in these playoffs.