Not so long ago, the Houston Astros were a perennial powerhouse. They had advanced to at least the American League Championship Series in seven straight seasons and won World Series titles in 2017 and 2022.
Now, things are quite different. Thanks to an early-season injury plague, age-related decline, and years of free-agent departures, the Astros are one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball. Their current record of 16-27 puts them in a last-place tie in the weak AL West, with a run differential of minus-44 tied for worst in MLB.
The schedule hasn't helped either. The Astros have played the weakest schedule in all of MLB as measured by opponents' average winning percentage. Moving forward, they rank 18th in remaining strength of schedule.
Playoff odds take a nosedive
Those current standings and projections raise an uncomfortable question: Will the Houston Astros be deadline sellers?
Their playoff odds are not promising, even with what may wind up being a very low bar for contention in the top-heavy AL. All the serious injuries afflicting core contributors right now mean the Astros may not be positioned to improve upon what is presently a 102-loss pace.
Adding to the concern, the farm system is currently one of the worst in the game.
Could Houston become deadline sellers?
This brings us to the possibility that the Astros move some notable veterans at the deadline in the name of improving their young talent base and shifting organizational focus to the long term.
If that does come to pass and the Astros commit to it, they could make themselves the most compelling team to watch leading up to the Aug. 3 deadline. They have the pieces to do more than just flip a couple of middle relievers to contenders.
At some point, the central matter may become whether owner Jim Crane will opt for a deeper teardown should Houston's fortunes not improve over the next 11 weeks or so.
The prize of the deadline
Yordan Alvarez would be the prize of the deadline. Alvarez boasts a career OPS+ of 165, which puts him behind just Aaron Judge and Mike Trout on the active career leaderboard. Yes, Alvarez is ahead ofJuan Soto and Shohei Ohtani, among many others.
This season, he's enjoying an MVP-grade rebound campaign after injuries waylaid his 2025. Thus far in 2026, Alvarez's age-29 season, he's slashing .308/.413/.616 with 13 home runs and 98 total bases in 43 games and almost as many walks as strikeouts.
When healthy, Alvarez is in the discussion for best hitter on the planet, and that's the case this year.
As well, Alvarez's contract makes him an even more attractive target. He's locked up through 2028 on the six-year, $115 million extension he signed prior to the 2023 season. It's a cost-controlled asset that any contenders would covet.