The 2026 NFL schedule is here, and now we wait. And wait, and wait, and wait. There are still nearly four months until the season begins. That gives us plenty of time to react and, often, overreact to the offseason.
This offseason addition — veteran or rookie — is what will put this team over the top. This schedule is way too hard, and that team is going to miss the playoffs. This schedule, though, is easy, and that team is a shoo-in for the postseason.
So what's an overreaction in light of the schedule release? And what's reality? We try to make those designations.
Lions will return to the playoffs
Despite playing in the uber-competitive NFC North, the Lions face the easiest strength of schedule based on Vegas forecasted wins, per Sharp Football Analysis. Detroit faces the Saints, Jets, Panthers and Cardinals as four of their first five games and later get the Dolphins, Falcons, Titans and Giants.
Are those automatic wins? No. Those don't exist in the NFL. But that's a good draw thanks to finishing last in the NFC North last year. We should note Detroit was just 3-5 in one-score games en route to that disappointing finish, and this is still a very talented roster.
The other factor working in the Lions' favor is where these games are played. From Weeks 5-16, the Lions play outdoors just twice, and one of them is in sunny Miami. (The other one is in Germany.) As the Lions' schedule reveal showed, they mean business.
Cowboys will win the NFC East
VERDICT: OVERREACTION
Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The Cowboys got better this offseason. Jalen Thompson and No. 11 overall pick Caleb Downs are massive upgrades on the back end, and Dee Winters was a nice under-the-radar acquisition at linebacker. The offense should still be fantastic. But there are still uncertainties at pass rusher, cornerback and the offensive line.
The schedule is difficult, too: 29th, according to Sharp Football Analysis' projections. After a potentially straightforward first two weeks, it's a tough five-week stretch. Compare that to the Eagles' first seven weeks.
Remember, Dak Prescott hasn't played consecutive full seasons since 2018-19, either. The Eagles still have a better defense, a better running back and a better offensive line. They have an easier projected schedule. Expect a Philly three-peat in the division, though Dallas could be set up nicely for a return to the postseason.
The 49ers' tough schedule, travel will push them out of playoff picture
VERDICT: OVERREACTION
The 49ers are doing the most traveling in a single season in NFL history, going over 38,100 miles. They have two international games, starting the season in Australia against the Rams and facing the Vikings in Mexico City in Week 11. Also, the NFC West drew the NFC East this year, meaning the 49ers have trips to the Giants and Cowboys.
Then there are the opponents themselves. Even with two games each against the Seahawks and Rams, San Francisco is roughly average in strength of schedule using last year's records and even easier using this year's projections from Sharp Football Analysis.
But let's not fret about either aspect. In fact, let's push the 49ers up and consider them bonafide NFC West and Super Bowl threats. First, the travel. Yes, it's a big ask to fly to Australia, but it's the season opener, and it's on a Thursday. They'll be back by Friday, considering the time zone change.
The 49ers then host the Dolphins and Cardinals and don't even leave the West Coast again until Week 7, when they face what could be a middling-at-best Falcons team. Their only other trip to the East Coast time zone is to visit the Giants.