The second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs continues on Wednesday with a pivotal Game 5 between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Central Division rivals, meeting in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, have split the first four games, with the home team winning every time.
As the series shifts back to Detroit for Game 5, will that trend continue? Or will the Cavaliers finally win a road game for the first time all postseason?
Game 5: Cavaliers at Pistons
Time: 8 p.m. ET | Channel: ESPN | Odds: Pistons -3.5
Prediction
Before the second round began, CBS Sports experts made their predictions for every series. No one expected this one to end earlier than six games, and six of the seven panel members expected it to go the distance.
This series has been extremely competitive. Three of the first four games have featured clutch time — score within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining. No team has won by more than 10 points, each team has won twice at home, and the total score through four games is Pistons 430, Cavaliers 426.
There's no reason to expect anything different on Wednesday.
Why Pistons Are the Pick
Home-court advantage
While the Cavaliers have momentum on their side, the Pistons are favored because they're at home, and location has been extremely important for both teams in the postseason. The Pistons are 5-1 at home and 1-4 on the road, while the Cavaliers are 6-0 at home and 0-5 on the road.
3-point shooting splits
Both teams shoot dramatically better at home. Among all 16 playoff teams, the Pistons and Cavaliers are tied for third in home 3-point shooting. But on the road, the Pistons drop to 12th and the Cavaliers fall to 14th.
Free-throw advantage
Both teams have gotten a substantially better whistle at home. The Cavaliers lead all playoff teams in home free-throw attempts per game, while the Pistons rank fourth. On the road, the Cavaliers drop to eighth and the Pistons fall to 10th.
Star performance
For these teams, outcomes have swung wildly from home to away because of how their stars have performed in different venues. Cade Cunningham, Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have all been significantly better at home than on the road.
Final Prediction
Pick: Pistons -3.5
Cunningham will bounce back from a poor Game 4 and the Pistons will win a close one to take a 3-2 lead and move within one win of their first Eastern Conference finals appearance since 2008.