The Oklahoma City Thunder will be watching intently to see which team they'll meet in the Western Conference finals, which gets underway later this month. The Thunder have swept their way through the first two rounds, defeating the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers with ease despite being without Jalen Williams since Game 2 of the first round due to a hamstring injury.
The Spurs' Game 5 win makes them the clear favorites to advance. Here are three reasons why the Thunder will hope to meet the Timberwolves instead.
Reason #1: Victor Wembanyama
First and foremost, the Spurs have Victor Wembanyama and the Timberwolves do not.
Wembanyama's first postseason experience has been far from perfect. Early in Game 2 of the Spurs' first-round series with the Portland Trail Blazers, he fell and slammed his face into the ground, which resulted in a concussion that forced him to leave that contest early and miss Game 3. In the Spurs' Game 1 loss to the Timberwolves, he shot 5 of 17 from the floor, and in their Game 4 loss to the Wolves, he was ejected after elbowing Naz Reid in the head.
But as he showed again in Game 5 on Tuesday, when he put up 27 points, 17 rebounds, five assists and three blocks to lead the Spurs to victory, Wembanyama is a game-breaker on both ends of the floor.
"I mean, tonight, some of the stuff Wemby was doing, you don't really have an answer for it," Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards said.
In nine games this postseason, Wembanyama is averaging 20.4 points, 11.2 rebounds and 4.2 blocks on 53.8/35.9/85.7 shooting splits. The Spurs have a plus-19.4 net rating in 260 minutes with him on the floor and a plus-seven net rating in 220 minutes without him.
Reason #2: Thunder Offensive Firepower
The Thunder have the best offensive rating of any team in the playoffs (126.3) and the second-best true shooting percentage (62.7%). On the rare occasions when they do miss, they often get the ball back.
They're fifth in the playoffs in offensive rebounding rate (33.3%) and third in second-chance points per game (16.5) — something they did not excel at during the regular season, in part due to Isaiah Hartenstein's injury problems.
Reason #3: How Wembanyama Changes the Game
While the Timberwolves have some strong defenders themselves, no one in the league changes the game on that end of the floor as much as Wembanyama. Opponents are less efficient because he changes the geography of the floor.
Rim attempts go down and are significantly less efficient, and 3-point rates go up. That's bad news for a team like the Thunder, who rely on highly efficient scoring inside the arc and can be extremely streaky from the perimeter.
The Rim Concern
The Thunder's rim frequency is already very low; just 31.4% of their attempts in the playoffs have come at the rim, which ranks 14th out of 16 teams. However, they are extremely efficient when they get there.
They're shooting 75.6% at the rim and scoring 1.391 points per possession, per Synergy Sports, both of which rank first among all playoff teams. Additionally, they're shooting 50.4% on non-restricted area paint attempts.
There's no chance they finish that well in the paint with Wembanyama around.
The 3-Point Outlook
Additionally, let's take a look at the Thunder's 3-point shooting. Like every other team, they'll have to shoot more 3s when Wembanyama is on the court.
So far, the Thunder have shot the ball extremely well this postseason: 38.4% on 36.5 attempts per game, marks that rank third and fifth, respectively. This comes after they shot 36.5% on 37.9 attempts per game in the regular season, finishing ninth and 13th, respectively.
The Thunder are a good shooting team, but they can be streaky.